IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v63y2017icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The real options to shutdown, startup, and abandon: U.S. electricity industry evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Fleten, Stein-Erik
  • Haugom, Erik
  • Ullrich, Carl J.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the partially irreversible decisions to shutdown, startup, and abandon existing production assets under cash flow uncertainty and regulatory uncertainty. We use detailed information for 1121 individual electric power generators located in the U.S. for the period 2001–2009 and find strong evidence of real options effects. We find that both profitability uncertainty and regulatory uncertainty decrease the probability of shutdown. Regulatory uncertainty also decreases the probability of startup, but we find that cash flow uncertainty increases the probability of startup, especially for large generators.

Suggested Citation

  • Fleten, Stein-Erik & Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2017. "The real options to shutdown, startup, and abandon: U.S. electricity industry evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.01.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988317300269
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.01.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kovenock, Dan & Phillips, Gordon M, 1997. "Capital Structure and Product Market Behavior: An Examination of Plant Exit and Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 767-803.
    2. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
    3. Magali Delmas & Yesim Tokat, 2005. "Deregulation, governance structures, and efficiency: the U.S. electric utility sector," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 441-460, May.
    4. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    5. Lund, Diderik, 2005. "How to analyze the investment-uncertainty relationship in real option models?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 311-322.
    6. Paul L. Joskow, 2008. "Lessons Learned From Electricity Market Liberalization," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2_suppl), pages 9-42, December.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
    9. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    10. J. Dean Craig and Scott J. Savage, 2013. "Market Restructuring, Competition and the Efficiency of Electricity Generation: Plant-level Evidence from the United States 1996 to 2006," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    11. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    12. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
    13. Chung-Li Tseng & Graydon Barz, 2002. "Short-Term Generation Asset Valuation: A Real Options Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 297-310, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abigaba, Micah Lucy & Bengtsson, Jens & Ketelaars, Martijn & Kort, Peter M., 2024. "Uncertain Time to Completion in a Sequential Investment Problem : a Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper 2024-008, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Vu, Khuong & Hartley, Kris, 2022. "Effects of digital transformation on electricity sector growth and productivity: A study of thirteen industrialized economies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. James Duván Ramírez-Quintero & Yessenia Martínez-Ruiz & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque, 2024. "Financial Viability of Thermal Power Generation Plants in the Transition to Renewable Energy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 73-84, September.
    4. Chen, Yong & Gibson, Nathan & Biswas, Arpan & Li, An & Bashiri, Hamid & Sharifi, Erfaneh & Fuentes, Claudio & Hoyle, Christopher & Leon, Arturo S. & Skypeck, Christopher J., 2021. "Valuation of operational flexibility: A case study of Bonneville power administration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Raquel J. Fonseca & Luísa Cunha, 2023. "Real options in health insurance decisions: the Portuguese ADSE system," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Marek Durica & Danuse Guttenova & Ludovit Pinda & Lucia Svabova, 2018. "Sustainable Value of Investment in Real Estate: Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Shimbar, A., 2021. "Environment-related stranded assets: An agenda for research into value destruction within carbon-intensive sectors in response to environmental concerns," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Comincioli, Nicola & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Menoncin, Francesco & Miniaci, Raffaele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Kozlova, Mariia & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagspiel, Verena, 2019. "Investment timing and capacity choice under rate-of-return regulation for renewable energy support," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 591-601.
    10. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Haugom, Erik & Pichler, Alois & Ullrich, Carl J., 2020. "Structural estimation of switching costs for peaking power plants," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 23-33.
    11. Gorupec Natalia & Brehmer Nataliia & Tiberius Victor & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    2. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    3. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    4. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    5. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    6. Santos, Lúcia & Soares, Isabel & Mendes, Carla & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Real Options versus Traditional Methods to assess Renewable Energy Projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 588-594.
    7. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    8. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    9. Delaney, Laura, 2021. "A model of investment under uncertainty with time to build, market incompleteness and risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 1155-1167.
    10. Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.
    11. Davison, Matt & Merener, Nicolas, 2023. "Equilibrium and real options in the ethanol industry: Modeling and empirical evidence," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    12. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    13. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    14. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2017. "The odd notion of “reversible investment”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 172-180.
    15. Jianjun Miao & Neng Wang, 2004. "Investment, Hedging, and Consumption Smoothing," Finance 0407014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-23, September.
    17. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst.
    18. Miranda, Oscar & Brandão, Luiz E. & Lazo Lazo, Juan, 2017. "A dynamic model for valuing flexible mining exploration projects under uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 393-404.
    19. Sødal, Sigbjørn & Koekebakker, Steen & Aadland, Roar, 2008. "Market switching in shipping -- A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 183-203, August.
    20. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Haugom, Erik & Pichler, Alois & Ullrich, Carl J., 2020. "Structural estimation of switching costs for peaking power plants," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 23-33.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regulatory uncertainty; Real options; Retail competition; Stranded costs; Investment decisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.