IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/revfec/v14y2005i3-4p311-322.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How to analyze the investment–uncertainty relationship in real option models?

Author

Listed:
  • Diderik Lund

Abstract

The real options tradition originally predicted a decreasing relationship between uncertainty and investment, through the positive effect of higher uncertainty on the trigger level for revenue relative to costs. An opposing effect on the probability of reaching the level has been identified, yielding a total effect with ambiguous sign. This paper makes three points. The “opposing” effect is not always opposing. Systematic risk cannot generally be assumed to increase with volatility. A probability is not the best measure of investment. The sign of the total effect is again ambiguous. This ambiguity is illustrated, depending on specification of model and parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Diderik Lund, 2005. "How to analyze the investment–uncertainty relationship in real option models?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 311-322.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:14:y:2005:i:3-4:p:311-322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2004.10.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2004.10.001
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rfe.2004.10.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nikolaos Milonas & Thomas Henker, 2001. "Price spread and convenience yield behaviour in the international oil market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 23-36.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    3. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
    7. Lund Diderik, 1993. "The Lognormal Diffusion Is Hardly an Equilibrium Price Process for Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 235-241, November.
    8. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    9. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
    10. Etheridge,Alison, 2002. "A Course in Financial Calculus," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521890779, January.
    11. Richard Heaney, 2002. "Approximation for convenience yield in commodity futures pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(10), pages 1005-1017, October.
    12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    13. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. "Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-265, March.
    14. Etheridge,Alison, 2002. "A Course in Financial Calculus," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521813853, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michail Chronopoulos & Verena Hagspiel & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2017. "Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 447-472, March.
    2. Mark Funk, 2006. "Business cycles and research investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1775-1782.
    3. Fouilloux, Jessica & Moraux, Franck & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2015. "Investing in finite-life carbon emissions reduction program under risk and idiosyncratic uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 310-320.
    4. Kanniainen, Juho, 2007. "Rothschild-Stiglitz's definition of increasing risk and the relationship between volatility and risk premium," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-374.
    5. Sebastian Maier, 2021. "Re-evaluating natural resource investments under uncertainty: An alternative to limited traditional approaches," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 907-937, April.
    6. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    7. Martijn Burger & Elena Ianchovichina & Bob Rijkers, 2016. "Risky Business: Political Instability and Sectoral Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in the Arab World," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 306-331.
    8. Robin Boadway & Michael Keen, 2014. "Rent Taxes and Royalties in Designing Fiscal Regimes for Non-Renewable Resources," CESifo Working Paper Series 4568, CESifo.
    9. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2012. "Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 255-265.
    10. Michail Chronopoulos, Derek Bunn, and Afzal Siddiqui, 2014. "Optionality and Policymaking in Re-Transforming the British Power Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    11. Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2013. "Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use?," Memorandum 14/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    12. Detert, Neal & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Real options approach to renewable energy investments in Mongolia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 136-150.
    13. Yuan, Mingqing, 2023. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Dynamics: Evidence from Listed Chinese Firms," MPRA Paper 119992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Elmar Lukas & Andreas Welling, 2012. "On the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: A Game Theoretic Real Option Approach," FEMM Working Papers 120030, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    15. Wong, Kit Pong, 2007. "The effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2152-2167, July.
    16. Juho Kanniainen, 2007. "Rothschild–Stiglitz's definition of increasing risk and the relationship between volatility and risk premium," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 363-374.
    17. Angelica Gianfreda & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2008. "Risk adjustment, investment policy, and valuation for an unlevered firm," Working Papers 49/2008, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    18. Lund, Diderik, 2009. "Marginal versus Average Beta of Equity under Corporate Taxation," Memorandum 12/2009, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    19. Timo Willershausen & Sascha H. Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2007. "Unsicherheit und der Wert realer Optionen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 314-332, May.
    20. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Rossi Silveira, Rafael, 2023. "How economic depreciation shapes the relationship of uncertainty with investments’ size & timing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    21. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2014. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 25-35.
    22. Lund, Diderik, 2005. "An analytical model of required returns to equity under taxation with imperfect loss offset," Memorandum 13/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    23. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2017. "The real options to shutdown, startup, and abandon: U.S. electricity industry evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-12.
    24. Berg, Tobias & Mölls, Sascha H. & Willershausen, Timo, 2009. "(Real-)options, uncertainty and comparative statics: Are Black and Scholes mistaken?," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 645, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    2. Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2013. "Irreversibility, mean reversion, and investment timing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 770-775.
    3. Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-23, September.
    4. Chuang-Chang Chang & Miao-Ying Chen, 2012. "Re-examining the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 241-255, February.
    5. Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
    6. Glover, Kristoffer J. & Hambusch, Gerhard, 2016. "Leveraged investments and agency conflicts when cash flows are mean reverting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-21.
    7. Berg, Tobias & Mölls, Sascha H. & Willershausen, Timo, 2009. "(Real-)options, uncertainty and comparative statics: Are Black and Scholes mistaken?," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 645, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    8. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    9. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November.
    10. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.
    11. Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2013. "Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use?," Memorandum 14/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    12. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
    13. Caren Sureth, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    14. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108.
    15. Jostein Tvedt, 2022. "Optimal Entry and Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty and the Impact of Mean Reversion," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth, 2002. "Taxation under Uncertainty – Problems of Dynamic Programming and Contingent Claims Analysis in Real Option Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 709, CESifo.
    17. Timo Willershausen & Sascha H. Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2007. "Unsicherheit und der Wert realer Optionen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 314-332, May.
    18. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    19. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:14:y:2005:i:3-4:p:311-322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1873-5924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.