IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v98y2021ics0140988321001560.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valuation of operational flexibility: A case study of Bonneville power administration

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Yong
  • Gibson, Nathan
  • Biswas, Arpan
  • Li, An
  • Bashiri, Hamid
  • Sharifi, Erfaneh
  • Fuentes, Claudio
  • Hoyle, Christopher
  • Leon, Arturo S.
  • Skypeck, Christopher J.

Abstract

Real options theory is applied to quantify the value of operational flexibility intrinsic to the hydropower generation capacity from the perspective of US federal power marketing administrations. The option value in this model arises from the tension between the increase in current sales revenue and the increase in the exposure of future power shortages. Using Bonneville Power Administration as an example, we apply the proposed valuation framework, analyze the optimal management policy for Bonneville Power Administration and investigate the potential impacts of Wind Vision 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yong & Gibson, Nathan & Biswas, Arpan & Li, An & Bashiri, Hamid & Sharifi, Erfaneh & Fuentes, Claudio & Hoyle, Christopher & Leon, Arturo S. & Skypeck, Christopher J., 2021. "Valuation of operational flexibility: A case study of Bonneville power administration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:98:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321001560
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321001560
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105251?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    2. Henao, A. & Sauma, E. & Reyes, T. & Gonzalez, A., 2017. "What is the value of the option to defer an investment in Transmission Expansion Planning? An estimation using Real Options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 194-207.
    3. Martínez Ceseña, E.A. & Mutale, J. & Rivas-Dávalos, F., 2013. "Real options theory applied to electricity generation projects: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 573-581.
    4. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    5. Cardin, Michel-Alexandre & Zhang, Sizhe & Nuttall, William J., 2017. "Strategic real option and flexibility analysis for nuclear power plants considering uncertainty in electricity demand and public acceptance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 226-237.
    6. Severin Borenstein & Stephen Holland, 2005. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Electricity Markets with Time-Invariant Retail Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 469-493, Autumn.
    7. Mäler, Karl-Göran & Li, Chuan-Zhong, 2010. "Measuring sustainability under regime shift uncertainty: a resilience pricing approach," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 707-719, December.
    8. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2017. "The real options to shutdown, startup, and abandon: U.S. electricity industry evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Ghoddusi, Hamed, 2017. "Blending under uncertainty: Real options analysis of ethanol plants and biofuels mandates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 110-120.
    11. Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ge & Zhu, Lijing & Li, Yan, 2018. "Investment strategy for underground gas storage facilities based on real option model considering gas market reform in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 132-142.
    12. Rios, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2019. "Integrating Real Options Analysis with long-term electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 188-205.
    13. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    14. Fernandes, Gláucia & Lima Gomes, Leonardo & Teixeira Brandão, Luiz Eduardo, 2019. "Mitigating Hydrological Risk with Energy Derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 528-535.
    15. Esther W. Mezey & Jon M. Conrad, 2010. "Real Options in Resource Economics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 33-52, October.
    16. Fernandes, Gláucia & Gomes, Leonardo Lima & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira, 2018. "A risk-hedging tool for hydro power plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 370-378.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gorupec Natalia & Brehmer Nataliia & Tiberius Victor & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.
    2. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    3. Ping Shi & Bo Yan & Jun Zhao, 2020. "Appropriate timing for SMEs to introduce an Internet-based online channel under uncertain operating costs: a real options analysis," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 969-999, December.
    4. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Energiewende @ Risk: On the Continuation of Renewable Power Generation at the End of Public Policy Support," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    5. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    6. Gazheli, Ardjan & van den Bergh, Jeroen, 2018. "Real options analysis of investment in solar vs. wind energy: Diversification strategies under uncertain prices and costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2693-2704.
    7. Kitzing, Lena & Juul, Nina & Drud, Michael & Boomsma, Trine Krogh, 2017. "A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 83-96.
    8. Kamila Klimek & Magdalena Kapłan & Serhiy Syrotyuk & Nikolay Bakach & Nikolay Kapustin & Ryszard Konieczny & Jakub Dobrzyński & Kinga Borek & Dorota Anders & Barbara Dybek & Agnieszka Karwacka & Grzeg, 2021. "Investment Model of Agricultural Biogas Plants for Individual Farms in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-30, November.
    9. Kozlova, Mariia & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagspiel, Verena, 2019. "Investment timing and capacity choice under rate-of-return regulation for renewable energy support," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 591-601.
    10. Bertolini, Marina & D'Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2018. "Do Smart Grids boost investments in domestic PV plants? Evidence from the Italian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 890-902.
    11. Insley, Margaret, 2017. "Resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices: Exercising your options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Coggins, Jay S. & Ramezani, Cyrus A., 1998. "An Arbitrage-Free Approach to Quasi-Option Value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 103-125, March.
    13. Acquah-Andoh, Elijah & Putra, Herdi A. & Ifelebuegu, Augustine O. & Owusu, Andrews, 2019. "Coalbed methane development in Indonesia: Design and economic analysis of upstream petroleum fiscal policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 155-167.
    14. Mo, Jian-Lei & Agnolucci, Paolo & Jiang, Mao-Rong & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of Chinese carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on low carbon energy (LCE) investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 271-283.
    15. Behringer, Stefan & Upmann, Thorsten, 2014. "Optimal harvesting of a spatial renewable resource," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 105-120.
    16. José Balibrea-Iniesta, 2020. "Economic Analysis of Renewable Energy Regulation in France: A Case Study for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    18. Ahlvik, Lassi & Iho, Antti, 2018. "Optimal geoengineering experiments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 148-168.
    19. Mariia Kozlova & Alena Lohrmann, 2021. "Steering Renewable Energy Investments in Favor of Energy System Reliability: A Call for a Hybrid Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Kassar, Ilhem & Lasserre, Pierre, 2004. "Species preservation and biodiversity value: a real options approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 857-879, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flexibility; Real option; Hydropower; Power market administration; Balancing authorities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:98:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321001560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.