IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v34y2012is3ps451-s458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic analysis of a low carbon path to 2050: A case for China, India and Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Saveyn, Bert
  • Paroussos, Leonidas
  • Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

Abstract

This article studies the economic implications that different global GHG emission mitigation policies may have in the major Asian economies, namely, China, India, and Japan. The analysis covers the period 2010–2050 and is performed by means of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (GEM-E3). Four scenarios are investigated: the three standard AME scenarios, and a fourth scenario with a GHG emission reduction path compatible with the 2°C target, reducing global GHG emissions in 2050 by 50%, relative to 2005. The scenarios are compared with the already adopted and announced policies of the respective countries, in the context of the Copenhagen pledges for 2020 and their long-term objectives in 2050. We further discuss the role of energy efficiency measures and zero-carbon power technologies in order to reach the long-term 2°C target. We find that postponing significant emission reductions may not accrue an economic benefit over time whereas it may increase some risks by possibly overstretching the reliance on zero-carbon technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Saveyn, Bert & Paroussos, Leonidas & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2012. "Economic analysis of a low carbon path to 2050: A case for China, India and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 451-458.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s451-s458
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988312000874
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N/A, 2002. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(3), pages 562-564, April.
    2. N/A, 2002. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(2), pages 371-372, January.
    3. Dowling, Paul & Russ, Peter, 2012. "The benefit from reduced energy import bills and the importance of energy prices in GHG reduction scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 429-435.
    4. Terry Townshend & Sam Fankhauser & Adam Matthews & Clément Feger & Jin Liu & Thais Narciso, 2011. "GLOBE climate legislation study," Working Papers hal-01930971, HAL.
    5. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    6. Saveyn, Bert & Van Regemorter, Denise & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 34-40.
    7. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
    8. McFarland, J. R. & Reilly, J. M. & Herzog, H. J., 2004. "Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 685-707, July.
    9. N/A, 2002. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(4), pages 755-756, July.
    10. Loschel, Andreas, 2002. "Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 105-126, December.
    11. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
    12. Rosenquist, Greg & McNeil, Michael & Iyer, Maithili & Meyers, Stephen & McMahon, James, 2006. "Energy efficiency standards for equipment: Additional opportunities in the residential and commercial sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3257-3267, November.
    13. Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
    14. N/A, 2002. "Research in Progress," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(1), pages 200-200, October.
    15. Peter Russ & Juan Carlos Ciscar & Bert Saveyn & Antonio Soria & Laszlo Szabo & Tom Van Ierland & Denise Van Regemorter & Rosella Virdis, 2009. "Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models," JRC Research Reports JRC50307, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paroussos, Leonidas & Fragkiadakis, Kostas & Charalampidis, Ioannis & Tsani, Stella & Capros, Pantelis, 2015. "Macroeconomic scenarios for the south Mediterranean countries: Evidence from general equilibrium model simulation results," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 121-142.
    2. Yingying Lu & David I. Stern, 2016. "Substitutability and the Cost of Climate Mitigation Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(1), pages 81-107, May.
    3. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    4. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.
    5. Bosello, Francesco & Marangoni, Giacomo & Orecchia, Carlo & Raitzer, David A. & Tavoni, Massimo, 2016. "The Cost of Climate Stabilization in Southeast Asia, a Joint Assessment with Dynamic Optimization and CGE Models," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 251810, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Francesco Bosello & Carlo Orecchia & David A. Raitzer, 2016. "Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam," Working Papers 2016.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Hübler, Michael & Voigt, Sebastian & Löschel, Andreas, 2014. "Designing an emissions trading scheme for China—An up-to-date climate policy assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 57-72.
    8. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    9. Ruamsuke, Kawin & Dhakal, Shobhakar & Marpaung, Charles O.P., 2015. "Energy and economic impacts of the global climate change policy on Southeast Asian countries: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 446-461.
    10. Kumar, Yogesh & Ringenberg, Jordan & Depuru, Soma Shekara & Devabhaktuni, Vijay K. & Lee, Jin Woo & Nikolaidis, Efstratios & Andersen, Brett & Afjeh, Abdollah, 2016. "Wind energy: Trends and enabling technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 209-224.
    11. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    12. Tsai, Miao-Shan & Chang, Ssu-Li, 2015. "Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 178-191.
    13. Aaron Finley & Wei He & Hui Huang & Chitin Hon, 2024. "Analyzing the Effectiveness of Carbon Pricing Instruments in Reducing Carbon Emissions in Major Asian Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Pascal da Costa & Wenhui Tian, 2015. "A Sectoral Prospective Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China, USA and France, 2010-2050," Working Papers hal-01026302, HAL.
    15. Mittal, Shivika & Dai, Hancheng & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Bridging greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy deployment target: Comparative assessment of China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 301-313.
    16. Icaza-Alvarez, Daniel & Jurado, Francisco & Tostado-Véliz, Marcos & Arevalo, Paúl, 2022. "Decarbonization of the Galapagos Islands. Proposal to transform the energy system into 100% renewable by 2050," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 199-220.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julien Lefevre, 2018. "Modeling the Socioeconomic Impacts of the Adoption of a Carbon Pricing Instrument – Literature review," CIRED Working Papers hal-03128619, HAL.
    2. Fan, Shenggen & Johnson, Michael E. & Saurkar, Anuja & Makombe, Tsitsi, 2007. "Investing in African agriculture to halve poverty by 2015," ReSAKSS issue notes 4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Peter Clough, . "Building a Recycling Society: The Experience of New Zealand," Chapters, in: Zhang Yunling & Fukunari Kimura & Sothea Oum (ed.), Moving Toward A New Development Model For East Asia-The Role of Domestic Policy and Regional Cooperation, chapter 13, pages 393-428, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    4. William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
    5. Antonio E. Etrata & Fernando L. Trinidad, 2020. "Does the level of social cultural beliefs affect the level of agreement of the respondents on the motivational dimensions of microinsurance?," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 138-152, July.
    6. Remedios P. Gam∗, 2018. "Teachers’ Experiences in Handling Students with Learning Difficulty," International Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Dr. Mohammad Hamad Al-khresheh, vol. 4(4), pages 179-185.
    7. Siow Yue Chia & Song Hong & Stephen Howes & Paul Wyrwoll & Vo Hai Minh & Sun Xuegong & Saroj Kumar Mohanty & Tulus T.H Tambunan & Somchai Jitsuchon & Larry Strange & Chang Jae Lee & Zhang Yunling & Mi, . "Moving Toward A New Development Model For East Asia-The Role of Domestic Policy and Regional Cooperation," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2011-rpr-10 edited by Zhang Yunling & Fukunari Kimura & Sothea Oum, enero-mar.
    8. Domingues, Rita, 2021. "News Media Coverage And Public Reactions To A Red Tide At The Algarve Coast (Southern Portugal)," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 9(3), pages 176-188.
    9. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    10. Xavier Labandeira, Pedro Linares and Miguel Rodriguez, 2009. "An Integrated Approach to Simulate the impacts of Carbon Emissions Trading Schemes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    11. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kiuila, O. & Rutherford, T.F., 2013. "The cost of reducing CO2 emissions: Integrating abatement technologies into economic modeling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 62-71.
    13. van den Broek, Machteld & Veenendaal, Paul & Koutstaal, Paul & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Impact of international climate policies on CO2 capture and storage deployment: Illustrated in the Dutch energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2000-2019, April.
    14. Abrell, Jan & Weigt, Hannes, 2008. "The Interaction of Emissions Trading and Renewable Energy Promotion," MPRA Paper 65658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    16. Sebastian Rausch & Valerie J. Karplus, 2014. "Markets versus Regulation: The Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of U.S. Climate Policy Proposals," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1_suppl), pages 199-228, June.
    17. Farrokhifar, Meisam & Nie, Yinghui & Pozo, David, 2020. "Energy systems planning: A survey on models for integrated power and natural gas networks coordination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    18. Standardi, Gabriele & Cai, Yiyong & Yeh, Sonia, 2017. "Sensitivity of modeling results to technological and regional details: The case of Italy's carbon mitigation policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 116-128.
    19. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    20. Ahn, Young-Hwan & Jeon, Wooyoung, 2019. "Power sector reform and CO2 abatement costs in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 202-214.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    General equilibrium models; Asia; Climate policy; Energy efficiency; Zero-carbon technologies; Copenhagen Accord;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s451-s458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.