IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v131y2024ics0140988324000677.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do price caps assist monetary authorities to control inflation? Examining the impact of the natural gas price cap on TTF spikes

Author

Listed:
  • Goodell, John W.
  • Gurdgiev, Constantin
  • Paltrinieri, Andrea
  • Piserà, Stefano

Abstract

Given the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict and sanctions against the Russian Federation, as well as Moscow's responses to these, European policy interventions in natural gas markets are of considerable interest to scholars and policymakers. We explore if the EU natural gas price cap announcement of December 2022 has affected Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices. After controlling for market and demand factors typically affecting TTF prices, we identify no significant impact of the price cap regulation on natural gas prices and their volatility. We conclude that the introduction of this price cap has provided little utility, and that there is a need for alternative actions to prevent potential future spikes in European natural gas prices. We contribute to the literature on energy prices, price controls as well as offer important guidance for policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2024. "Do price caps assist monetary authorities to control inflation? Examining the impact of the natural gas price cap on TTF spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324000677
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107359
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324000677
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107359?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Earle & Karl Schmedders & Tymon Tatur, 2007. "On Price Caps Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 93-111.
    2. John Coglianese & Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian & James H. Stock, 2017. "Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    4. Littlechild, Stephen, 2018. "Competition, regulation and price controls in the GB retail energy market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 59-69.
    5. Robert W. Hahn & Robert D. Metcalfe, 2021. "Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1658-1688, May.
    6. Mr. Anil Ari & Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Mr. Simon Black & Oya Celasun & Ms. Dora M Iakova & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Mr. Victor Mylonas & Ian W.H. Parry & Iulia Teodoru & Karlygash Zhunussova, 2022. "Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels," IMF Working Papers 2022/152, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Rao, Amar & Lucey, Brian & Kumar, Satish & Lim, Weng Marc, 2023. "Do green energy markets catch cold when conventional energy markets sneeze?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    8. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Risk transmissions between bitcoin and traditional financial assets during the COVID-19 era: The role of global uncertainties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2019. "Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 666-676.
    10. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2023. "Global energy supply risk: Evidence from the reactions of European natural gas futures to Nord Stream announcements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2023. "Drivers of natural gas and renewable energy utilization in the USA: How about household energy efficiency-energy expenditure and retail electricity prices?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    13. Hille, Erik, 2023. "Europe's energy crisis: Are geopolitical risks in source countries of fossil fuels accelerating the transition to renewable energy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    14. Eben Lazarus & Daniel J. Lewis & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 541-559, October.
    15. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "Irreversible Investment with Price Ceilings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 541-557, June.
    16. Phelim P. Boyle & Stuart M. Turnbull, 1989. "Pricing and hedging capped options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 41-54, February.
    17. Ian M. Dobbs, 2004. "Intertemporal price cap regulation under uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 421-440, April.
    18. John W. Goodell & Andrea Paltrinieri & Stefano PiserÃ, 2023. "Comparing Search-Engine Intensity and Regulatory Attention Impacts on Cryptocurrencies: Uncovering Important Heterogeneities," Review of Corporate Finance, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 571-595, September.
    19. Yousaf, Imran & Nekhili, Ramzi & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Extreme connectedness between renewable energy tokens and fossil fuel markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Malani, Anup & Reif, Julian, 2015. "Interpreting pre-trends as anticipation: Impact on estimated treatment effects from tort reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-17.
    21. Eben Lazarus & Daniel J. Lewis & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice Rejoinder," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 574-575, October.
    22. Broadstock, David C. & Li, Raymond & Wang, Linjin, 2020. "Integration reforms in the European natural gas market: A rolling-window spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    23. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
    24. Campbell, Alrick, 2018. "Cap prices or cap revenues? The dilemma of electric utility networks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 802-812.
    25. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    26. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "The impact of natural gas price control in China: A computable general equilibrium approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 524-531.
    27. Ahl, Amanda & Yarime, Masaru & Tanaka, Kenji & Sagawa, Daishi, 2019. "Review of blockchain-based distributed energy: Implications for institutional development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 200-211.
    28. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
    29. Fabra, Natalia, 2023. "Reforming European electricity markets: Lessons from the energy crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    30. Stefano Piserà & Helen Chiappini, 2022. "Are ESG indexes a safe-haven or hedging asset? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in China," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 56-75, May.
    31. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erten, Ibrahim, 2022. "Price spikes, temporary price caps, and welfare effects of regulatory interventions on wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2023. "Global energy supply risk: Evidence from the reactions of European natural gas futures to Nord Stream announcements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Grimm Veronika & Zöttl Gregor, 2010. "Price Regulation under Demand Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, June.
    3. Lemus, Ana B. & Moreno, Diego, 2017. "Price caps with capacity precommitment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 131-158.
    4. Roques, F.A. & Savva , N.S., 2006. "Price Cap Regulation and Investment Incentives under Demand Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0636, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Lemus Torres, Ana Belén, 2014. "Price caps regulation with capacity precommitment," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    6. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Camadan, Ercument & Erten, Ibrahim Etem & Zhang, Alex Hongliang, 2023. "Market failure or politics? Understanding the motives behind regulatory actions to address surging electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. Roques, Fabien A. & Savva, Nicos, 2009. "Investment under uncertainty with price ceilings in oligopolies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 507-524, February.
    9. Toshiaki Ogawa & Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2020. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia around the ZLB," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Abhimanyu Gupta & Myung Hwan Seo, 2023. "Robust Inference on Infinite and Growing Dimensional Time‐Series Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1333-1361, July.
    11. Jungbin Hwang & Gonzalo Valdés, 2020. "Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression in the Presence of Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence," Working papers 2020-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2020.
    12. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Dynamic frequency relationships and volatility spillovers in natural gas, crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, and heating oil markets: Implications for portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Sen, Suphi & Vollebergh, Herman, 2018. "The effectiveness of taxing the carbon content of energy consumption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 74-99.
    14. Federico Belotti & Alessandro Casini & Leopoldo Catania & Stefano Grassi & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Simultaneous bandwidths determination for DK-HAC estimators and long-run variance estimation in nonparametric settings," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 281-306, February.
    15. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2023. "DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 69-111, January.
    16. Picault, Matthieu & Pinter, Julien & Renault, Thomas, 2022. "Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Boskovic, Branko & Nøstbakken, Linda, 2016. "How do land markets anticipate regulatory change? Evidence from Canadian Conservation policy," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 9/2016, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics, revised 17 Aug 2016.
    18. Giselle Montamat & James H. Stock, 2020. "Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 361-371, June.
    19. Granziera, Eleonora & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019. "Predicting relative forecasting performance: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1636-1657.
    20. Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie & Gemici, Eray, 2023. "Volatility spillovers between sovereign CDS and futures markets in various volatility states: Evidence from an emerging economy around the pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTF price cap; European natural gas futures; Natural gas; Price caps; Commodity prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324000677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.