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What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?

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  • Clerides, Sofronis
  • Krokida, Styliani-Iris
  • Lambertides, Neophytos
  • Tsouknidis, Dimitris

Abstract

We investigate the link between crude oil prices, retail gasoline prices and consumer sentiment in the euro area. Our results reveal that consumer sentiment and its key components deteriorate notably as a response to positive shocks to real gasoline prices at the pump. On the contrary, positive oil-specific demand shocks do not trigger such a strong deterioration of consumer sentiment. The analysis is further refined to analyse the effects of these shocks to six key sub-components of consumer sentiment, which include household finance, conditions for buying durable products and the macroeconomy.

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  • Clerides, Sofronis & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Lambertides, Neophytos & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2022. "What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:105:y:2022:i:c:s0140988321005880
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105743
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    Cited by:

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    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Dan & Mirza, Nawazish & Zhong, Yifan & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The impact of consumer confidence on oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Xu Gong & Keqin Guan & Qiyang Chen, 2022. "The role of textual analysis in oil futures price forecasting based on machine learning approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1987-2017, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil supply and demand shocks; Gasoline prices; Consumer sentiment; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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