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The effects of oil price shocks on U.S. stock order flow imbalances and stock returns

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  • Lambertides, Neophytos
  • Savva, Christos S.
  • Tsouknidis, Dimitris A.

Abstract

This paper investigates for the first time the effects of oil demand shocks and oil supply shocks on stock order flow imbalances leading to changes in stock returns. Through the estimation of a structural VAR model, positive oil demand shocks are able to explain almost 36% of the observed variation in the daily average stock order flow imbalances measured by the buy/sell trades ratio; which consequently lead to a negative rather than positive stock returns reaction. In contrast, oil supply shocks exhibit a negative and marginally significant effect on stock order flow imbalances. Our aggregate analysis suggests that positive shocks on stock order flow imbalances are negatively related to stock returns. These effects are stronger for oil-related sectors when compared with the rest of the equities sectors.

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  • Lambertides, Neophytos & Savva, Christos S. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "The effects of oil price shocks on U.S. stock order flow imbalances and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 137-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:137-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.03.008
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    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2019. "Does Islamic stock sensitivity to oil prices have economic significance?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 497-512.
    3. Radosław Puka & Bartosz Łamasz, 2020. "Using Artificial Neural Networks to Find Buy Signals for WTI Crude Oil Call Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kambouroudis, Dimos S. & Tsakou, Katerina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2018. "Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: The role of oil price shocks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 376-391.
    5. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Sharif, Arshian & Jermsittiparsert, Kittisak, 2020. "How oil prices, gold prices, uncertainty and risk impact Islamic and conventional stocks? Empirical evidence from QARDL technique," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    8. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Liquidity, surprise volume and return premia in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 93-104.
    9. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Ashraf, Muhammad Sajjad & Sharif, Arshian & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "How the price dynamics of energy resources and precious metals interact with conventional and Islamic Stocks: Fresh insight from dynamic ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Tim Friedhoff & Cam-Duc Au & Philippe Krahnhof, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of Orthogonalized Brent Oil Price Shocks on the Returns of Dependent Industries in Times of the Russian War," MUNI ECON Working Papers 2023-04, Masaryk University.
    11. Clerides, Sofronis & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Lambertides, Neophytos & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2022. "What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Stock order flow imbalances; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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