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How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?

Author

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  • Cortazar, Gonzalo
  • Ortega, Hector
  • Valencia, Consuelo

Abstract

Even though there is a wide consensus that having good oil price forecasts is very valuable for many agents in the economy, results have not been fully satisfactory and there is an ongoing effort to improve their accuracy. Research has explored many different modeling approaches including time series, regressions, and artificial intelligence, among others. Also, many different sources of input data have been used like spot and futures prices, product spreads, and micro and macro variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Valencia, Consuelo, 2021. "How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321003856
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105500
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yuan-Yuan & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "The impact of institutional analyst forecast divergence on crude oil market: Evidence from the mixed frequency models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Arash Sioofy Khoojine & Mahboubeh Shadabfar & Yousef Edrisi Tabriz, 2022. "A Mutual Information-Based Network Autoregressive Model for Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Open-High-Low-Close Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Oil prices; Futures; Expected prices; Pricing models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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