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New evidence of anti-herding of oil-price forecasters

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan Christoph
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Abstract

We used the oil-price forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters published by the European Central Bank to analyze whether oil-price forecasters herd or anti-herd. Oil-price forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Based on a new empirical test developed by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80: 657-675, 2006), we found strong evidence of anti-herding among oil-price forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "New evidence of anti-herding of oil-price forecasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1456-1459, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:6:p:1456-1459
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    1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
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    4. Manzanares, Andrés & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 836, European Central Bank.
    5. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    6. Batchelor, Roy A. & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Product differentiation in the economic forecasting industry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 311-316, October.
    7. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price Forecasting Herding;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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