IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v28y2008i6p537-560.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multicommodity model of futures prices: Using futures prices of one commodity to estimate the stochastic process of another

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzalo Cortazar
  • Carlos Milla
  • Felipe Severino

Abstract

This article proposes a multicommodity model of futures prices of more than one commodity that allows the use of long‐maturity futures prices available for one commodity to estimate futures prices for the other. The model considers that commodity prices have common and commodity‐specific factors. A procedure for choosing the number of both types of unobservable‐Gaussian factors is presented. Also, it is shown how commodities with and without seasonality may be jointly modeled and how to estimate the model using Kalman filter. Results for the West Texas Intermediate–Brent and for the West Texas Intermediate–unleaded gasoline models presented show strong improvements over the traditional individual‐commodity models, with much lower out‐of‐sample errors and better volatility estimates, even when using fewer factors. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:537–560, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalo Cortazar & Carlos Milla & Felipe Severino, 2008. "A multicommodity model of futures prices: Using futures prices of one commodity to estimate the stochastic process of another," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 537-560, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:6:p:537-560
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo Cortazar & Simon Gutierrez & Hector Ortega, 2016. "Empirical Performance of Commodity Pricing Models: When is it Worthwhile to Use a Stochastic Volatility Specification?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 457-487, May.
    2. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2018. "A common long-term trend for bulk shipping prices," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 421-432, September.
    3. Jaime Casassus & Peng Liu & Ke Tang, 2011. "Relative Scarcity of Commodities with a Long-Term Economic Relationship and the Correlation of Futures Returns," Documentos de Trabajo 404, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    4. Farkas, Walter & Gourier, Elise & Huitema, Robert & Necula, Ciprian, 2017. "A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 249-268.
    5. Andr�s Garc�a Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2012. "Analyzing the dynamics of the refining margin: implications for valuation and hedging," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1839-1855, December.
    6. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices, and Pricing Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4141-4155, September.
    7. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Kovacevic, Ivo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2015. "Expected commodity returns and pricing models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-71.
    8. Michael T. Chng, 2010. "Comparing Different Economic Linkages Among Commodity Futures," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1348-1389, November.
    9. Dolores Furio & Javier Poblacion, 2018. "Electricity and Natural Gas Prices Sharing the Long-term Trend: Some Evidence from the Spanish Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 173-180.
    10. Jaime Casassus & Peng Liu & Ke Tang, 2015. "Maximal Gaussian Affine Models for Multiple Commodities: A Note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 75-86, January.
    11. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Valencia, Consuelo, 2021. "How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Beuermann, Diether & Bernales, Alejandro, 2013. "Risk Management with Thinly Traded Securities: Methodology and Implementation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4647, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Han Jun S. & Kordzakhia Nino & Shevchenko Pavel V. & Trück Stefan, 2022. "On correlated measurement errors in the Schwartz–Smith two-factor model," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 108-122, January.
    14. Rauch, Johannes & Krayzler, Mikhail & Brunner, Bernhard & Zagst, Rudi, 2013. "Pricing of derivatives on commodity indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 143-151.
    15. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2021. "Measuring bulk shipping prices risk," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 291-309, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:6:p:537-560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.