IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v34y2015icp15-33.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Permanent sales increase and investment

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Insun
  • Koveos, Peter
  • Barkley, Tom

Abstract

When firms experience increases in sales that they consider to be permanent, the present value of expected profits also increases, leading to increases in the firms' investments. Our study investigates the permanent sales hypothesis (PSH) of firms' investment; it examines whether investment decisions are influenced by changes in the permanent, in contrast to transitory, component of sales income increases. Using the co-integration test and the structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) framework, our paper finds strong support for the hypothesis that investment behavior is primarily explained by permanent changes in sales income. Empirical multiple time series regression results also confirm that investments are a function of a number of past yearly sales changes. Our results show that larger, more liquid, and lower debt ratio firms follow PSH more closely than smaller, less liquid, higher debt ratio firms. Recent studies on corporate investment (i.e., Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen, 1988) have argued that the higher the dependence on the internal source of funding of the investment, the stronger the severity of financing constraints. Our study shows that the more dependent on the permanent cumulative increase of internal source of funding a firm's funding on investment, the less financially constrained firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Insun & Koveos, Peter & Barkley, Tom, 2015. "Permanent sales increase and investment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:15-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539815000870
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2004. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2002. "Persistent and Transitory Shocks, Learning, and Investment Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 650-677, August.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    4. Pan, Ming-Shiun, 2007. "Permanent and transitory components of earnings, dividends, and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 535-549, September.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Lach, Saul & Schankerman, Mark, 1989. "Dynamics of R&D and Investment in the Scientific Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 880-904, August.
    7. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1996. "Time-Series Implications of Aggregate Dividend Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 589-618.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    10. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    11. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    12. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-273, March.
    13. Pan, Ming-Shiun, 2001. "Aggregate Dividend Behavior and Permanent Earnings Hypothesis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 23-38, February.
    14. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
    15. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    16. Cook, Thomas J. & Rozeff, Michael S., 1984. "Size and Earnings/Price Ratio Anomalies: One Effect or Two?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 449-466, December.
    17. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-46, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schulte, Reinhard, 2018. "New venture investing trajectories: A large scale longitudinal study," Lüneburger Beiträge zur Gründungsforschung 13, Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Department of Entrepreneurship & Start-up Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    2. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2011. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors, and the Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 88-105, May.
    3. Stephen Bond, 2000. "Noisy Share Prices and the Q Model of Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1320, Econometric Society.
    4. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    5. Barnett, Steven A. & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 1998. "Nonlinear response of firm investment to Q:: Testing a model of convex and non-convex adjustment costs1," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 261-288, July.
    6. Claessens, Stijn & Yafeh, Yishay & Ueda, Kenichi, 2010. "Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Ying Huang & Chia-Hui Tsai & Carl R. Chen, 2007. "Expected P/E, Residual P/E, and Stock Return Reversal: Time-Varying Fundamentals or Investor Overreaction?," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(1), pages 11-28, April.
    8. Rena Sivitanidou, 1999. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commerical Construction?," Working Paper 8659, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    9. Francesco Campanella & Mario Mustilli & Eugenio D¡¯Angelo, 2016. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and Fundamental Analysis: An Empirical Test in the European Securities Market," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 27-42, February.
    10. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "Stock market and investment : the signaling role of the market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1612, The World Bank.
    12. Maurizio Bovi, 2014. "Shocks and the Expectations Formation Process. A Tale of Two Expectations," Natural Field Experiments 00390, The Field Experiments Website.
    13. Stephen Bond & Dietmar Harhoff & John Van Reenen, 2010. "Investment, R&D and Financial Constraints in Britain and Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Contributions in Memory of Zvi Griliches, pages 433-460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Warne, Anders & Villani, Mattias, 2003. "Monetary policy analysis in a small open economy using Bayesian cointegrated structural VARs," Working Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.
    15. Graham Baird & James Dodd & Lawrence Middleton, 2020. "A growth adjusted price-earnings ratio," Papers 2001.08240, arXiv.org.
    16. Hung, Juann H., 1997. "The exchange rate's impact on overseas profits of U.S. multinationals," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 439-458.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Joseph Shaanan, 2005. "Investment, irreversibility, and options: An empirical framework," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 241-254.
    19. Bo, Hong & Driver, Ciaran & Lin, Hsiang-Chun Michael, 2014. "Corporate investment during the financial crisis: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-12.
    20. Konstantinos Drakos, 2012. "Extent and intensity of investment with multiple capital goods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2799-2810, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm investment; Permanent income; Transitory income; Sales change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:15-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.