IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijb/journl/v6y2007i1p11-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expected P/E, Residual P/E, and Stock Return Reversal: Time-Varying Fundamentals or Investor Overreaction?

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Huang

    (School of Business, Manhattan College, U.S.A.)

  • Chia-Hui Tsai

    (First Taisec Capital Management, Taiwan)

  • Carl R. Chen

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Dayton, U.S.A.)

Abstract

We decompose P/E ratios into a fundamental component and a residual component that cannot be explained by the firm or economic fundamentals. Purging the fundamental component from observed P/E ratios, we find that portfolios based on residual P/E ratios exhibit performance reversal only in overbid glamour stocks; hence over-optimism is more prevalent than over-pessimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Huang & Chia-Hui Tsai & Carl R. Chen, 2007. "Expected P/E, Residual P/E, and Stock Return Reversal: Time-Varying Fundamentals or Investor Overreaction?," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(1), pages 11-28, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:6:y:2007:i:1:p:11-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.06-1/pdf/vol_6-1-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.06-1/abstract/02.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard L. Constand & Lewis P. Freitas & Michael J. Sullivan, 1991. "Factors Affecting Price Earnings Ratios and Market Values of Japanese Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), Winter.
    2. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    3. Partha Gangopadhyay, 1996. "Macroeconomic Variables And Seasonal Mean Reversion In Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 395-416, September.
    4. Cook, Thomas J. & Rozeff, Michael S., 1984. "Size and Earnings/Price Ratio Anomalies: One Effect or Two?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 449-466, December.
    5. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    7. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    8. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-46, March.
    9. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michels, Rouven & Ötting, Marius & Langrock, Roland, 2023. "Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1118-1127.
    2. Manas Mayur, 2015. "Relationship between Price–Earnings Ratios and Stock Value in an Emerging Market," Paradigm, , vol. 19(1), pages 52-64, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    3. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2010. "Choix de portefeuille: comparaison des différentes stratégies [Portfolio selection: comparison of different strategies]," MPRA Paper 82946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2010.
    4. Francesco Campanella & Mario Mustilli & Eugenio D¡¯Angelo, 2016. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and Fundamental Analysis: An Empirical Test in the European Securities Market," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 27-42, February.
    5. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Graham Baird & James Dodd & Lawrence Middleton, 2020. "A growth adjusted price-earnings ratio," Papers 2001.08240, arXiv.org.
    7. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    8. López-García, M.N. & Trinidad-Segovia, J.E. & Sánchez-Granero, M.A. & Pouchkarev, I., 2021. "Extending the Fama and French model with a long term memory factor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 421-426.
    9. Barry, Christopher B. & Goldreyer, Elizabeth & Lockwood, Larry & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2002. "Robustness of size and value effects in emerging equity markets, 1985-2000," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-30, March.
    10. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Are calculated betas good for anything?," IESE Research Papers D/555, IESE Business School.
    11. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    13. Tanveer Ahmad; Syed Muhammad Amir Shah, 2017. "The Value-Growth Indicators and Value Premium: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 11(2), pages 124-139, Fall.
    14. Anton Astakhov & Tomas Havranek & Jiri Novak, 2019. "Firm Size And Stock Returns: A Quantitative Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 1463-1492, December.
    15. Pheng Bian Ong & Mohamed Hisham Hanifa & Mansor Mohd Isa, 2018. "Do Firm Size and Value Affect Shareholder Returns in Malaysia?," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 53-69.
    16. Xia, Hui & Min, Xinyu & Deng, Shijie, 2015. "Effectiveness of earnings forecasts in efficient global portfolio construction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 568-574.
    17. Blocher, Jesse & Reed, Adam V. & Van Wesep, Edward D., 2013. "Connecting two markets: An equilibrium framework for shorts, longs, and stock loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 302-322.
    18. Patricia M. Fairfield & Trevor S. Harris, 1993. "Price†Earnings and Price†to†Book Anomalies: Tests of an Intrinsic Value Explanation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(2), pages 590-611, March.
    19. Madiha Kazmi & Umara Noreen & Imran Abbas Jadoon & Attayah Shafique, 2021. "Downside Beta and Downside Gamma: In Search for a Better Capital Asset Pricing Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-14, December.
    20. Anissa Chaibi & Sabrina Alioui & Bing Xiao, 2014. "On The Impact Of Firm Size On Risk And Return: Fresh Evidence From The American Stock Market Over The Recent Years," Working Papers 2014-230, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    P/E ratios; overreaction; market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:6:y:2007:i:1:p:11-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Szu-Hsien Ho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbfcutw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.