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A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach

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  • Agliardi, Elettra
  • Agliardi, Rossella
  • Pinar, Mehmet
  • Stengos, Thanasis
  • Topaloglou, Nikolas

Abstract

An optimal weighting scheme is proposed to construct economic, political and financial risk indices in emerging markets using an approach that relies on consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency. These tests are considered for a given risk index with respect to all possible indices constructed from a set of individual risk factors. The test statistics and the estimators are computed using mixed integer programming methods. We derive an economic, political and financial risk ranking of emerging countries. Finally, an overall risk index is constructed. One main result is that the financial risk is the leading contributor to sovereign risk in emerging markets followed by the economic and political risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2012. "A new country risk index for emerging markets: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 741-761.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:5:p:741-761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.08.003
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    4. Francisco López-Herrera & Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & César Gurrola Ríos, 2019. "Spillovers entre el S&Poor500 y los principales EMBIG latinoamericanos," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 527-540, Agosto 20.
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    6. Elettra Agliardi & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2013. "A New Index of Environmental Quality Based on Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Working Paper series 12_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Annika Westphal, 2015. "Systemic Risk in the European Union: A Network Approach to Banks’ Sovereign Debt Exposures," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-36, July.
    8. Agliardi, Elettra & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2014. "A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 375-384.
    9. Guido Bonatti & Andrea Ciacci & Enrico Ivaldi, 2021. "Different Measures of Country Risk: An Application to European Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Geographical diversification with a World Volatility Index," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-82.
    11. Emilian C. Miricescu & Lucian Ţâţu & Delia Cornea, 2016. "The Determinants of the Sovereign Debt Rating: Evidence for the European Union Countries," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 175-188.
    12. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & Nikolas Topaloglou, 2022. "Stochastic dominance spanning and augmenting the human development index with institutional quality," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(1), pages 341-369, August.
    13. Tahsin Mehdi, 2019. "Stochastic Dominance Approach to OECD’s Better Life Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 917-954, June.
    14. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    15. San Martín Albizuri, Nerea & Rodríguez Castellanos, Arturo, 2008. "¿Reflejan los índices de riesgo país las variables relevantes en el desencadenamiento de las crisis externas? Un análisis sobre el periodo 1994-2001," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    16. Shunsuke Managi & Shuning Chen & Pushpam Kumar & Partha Dasgupta, 2024. "Sustainable matrix beyond GDP: investment for inclusive growth," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Jiann-jong Guo & Guo-chen Wang & Chien-hung Tung, 2014. "Do China's Outward Direct Investors Prefer Countries with High Political Risk? An International and Empirical Comparison," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 22-43, November.
    18. Giovanni Bernardo & Irene Brunetti & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2021. "Measuring the presence of organized crime across Italian provinces: a sensitivity analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 31-95, February.
    19. Tahsin Mehdi, 2019. "Stochastic Dominance Approach to Measuring Child Development," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 12(5), pages 1567-1588, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonparametric stochastic dominance; Mixed Integer programming; Sovereign risk; Emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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