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The Monday effect revisited: An alternative testing approach

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  • Alt, Raimund
  • Fortin, Ines
  • Weinberger, Simon

Abstract

This paper questions traditional approaches for testing the Monday effect of stock returns. We propose an alternative, multiple hypothesis testing approach based on the closure test principle which controls the multiple type I error. We consider the US, the UK and the German stock markets and test Monday related pairwise comparisons of daily expected stock returns, while the probability of committing any type I error is always kept smaller than a prespecified level [alpha], for each combination of true null hypotheses. Overall, the new testing approach supports previous findings of a Monday effect for the 1970s and 1980s, in particular for the US and Germany, while it suggests that the Monday effect has vanished in the 1990s and 2000s in all three markets. The comparison of the closure test procedure, the traditional multiple t-test and the Bonferroni test, a classical multiple test procedure, shows that traditional testing may result in spurious significance while the Bonferroni test may sometimes be too conservative.

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  • Alt, Raimund & Fortin, Ines & Weinberger, Simon, 2011. "The Monday effect revisited: An alternative testing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-460, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:447-460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Sungro Lee, Chang Sik Kim, In-Moo Kim & Chang Sik Kim & In-Moo Kim, 2012. "Testing the Monday Effect using High-frequency Intraday Returns: A Spatial Dominance Approach," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 28, pages 69-90.
    7. Kumar, Satish, 2016. "Revisiting calendar anomalies: Three decades of multicurrency evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 16-32.
    8. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    9. Hülya Cengiz & Ömer Bilen & Ali Hakan Büyüklü & Gülizar Damgacı, 2017. "Stock market anomalies: the day of the week effects, evidence from Borsa Istanbul," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
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    11. Hira Irshad & Hasniza Mohd Taib, 2017. "Calendar anomalies: Review of literature," Journal of Advances in Humanities and Social Sciences, Dr. Yi-Hsing Hsieh, vol. 3(6), pages 303-310.
    12. Cheema, Arbab K. & Eshraghi, Arman & Wang, Qingwei, 2023. "Macroeconomic news and price synchronicity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 390-412.
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    15. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).

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