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Are There Sectoral Anomalies Too? The Pitfalls of Unreported Multiple Hypothesis Testing and a Simple Solution

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  • Greenstone, Michael
  • Oyer, Paul

Abstract

The recent emphasis on sector-specific investment strategies has led to the emergence of industry-specific calendar anomalies, notably the technology sector "summer swoon." A standard ttest implies that these price movements provide arbitrage opportunities. However, this test fails to account for the many tests that may have preceded the swoon's discovery. We propose the use of the Bonferroni correction to account for this unreported testing. Its application reverses the conclusions about the summer swoon and finds no evidence of calendar-based price patterns in any other sector. We also use the Bonferroni correction to revisit previously documented, market-wide, anomalies. Conclusions about the most widely cited anomalies (e.g., the January effect) are unchanged, but evidence for some other "anomalies" is substantially weakened. Our results emphasize that in evaluating a proposed anomaly, sectoral in nature or otherwise, it is crucial to account for the hypotheses that were likely to have been tested but not reported. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Greenstone, Michael & Oyer, Paul, 2000. "Are There Sectoral Anomalies Too? The Pitfalls of Unreported Multiple Hypothesis Testing and a Simple Solution," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 37-55, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:15:y:2000:i:1:p:37-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Bin Ke & Kathy R. Petroni & Yong Yu, 2008. "The Effect of Regulation FD on Transient Institutional Investors' Trading Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 853-883, September.
    2. Valadkhani, Abbas & O'Mahony, Barry, 2024. "Sector-specific calendar anomalies in the US equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    3. Alt, Raimund & Fortin, Ines & Weinberger, Simon, 2011. "The Monday effect revisited: An alternative testing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-460, June.
    4. Alt, Raimund & Fortin, Ines & Weinberger, Simon, 2002. "The Day-of-the-Week Effect Revisited: An Alternative Testing Approach," Economics Series 127, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    5. Russell P. Robins & Geoffrey Peter Smith, 2020. "Selection bias and pseudo discoveries on the constancy of stock return anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1407-1426, November.

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