IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v80y2021icp823-840.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Another look at calendar anomalies

Author

Listed:
  • Chatzitzisi, Evanthia
  • Fountas, Stilianos
  • Panagiotidis, Theodore

Abstract

We employ daily aggregate and sectoral S&P500 data to shed further light on the day-of-the-week anomaly using GARCH and EGARCH models. We obtain the following results: First, there is strong evidence for day-of-the-week effects in all sectors, implying that these effects are part of a wide phenomenon affecting the entire market structure. Second, using rolling-regressions, we find that significant seasonality represents a small proportion of the total sample. Third, using a logit setup, we examine the impact of four factors, namely recessions, uncertainty, trading volume and bearish sentiment on seasonality. We reveal that recessions and uncertainty have explanatory power for anomalies whereas trading volume does not.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatzitzisi, Evanthia & Fountas, Stilianos & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Another look at calendar anomalies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 823-840.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:80:y:2021:i:c:p:823-840
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2019.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976918301868
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2019.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keim, Donald B & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1984. "A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 819-835, July.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha, 2001. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: computation and inference," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 57, pages 3569-3649, Elsevier.
    3. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
    4. Georgios Bampinas & Konstantinos Ladopoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "A note on the estimated GARCH coefficients from the S&P1500 universe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3647-3653, July.
    5. Ľluboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, August.
    6. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    7. Scott Mayfield, E., 2004. "Estimating the market risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 465-496, September.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2084, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
    11. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    12. Jorge Brusa & Pu Liu & Craig Schulman, 2003. "The Weekend and 'Reverse' Weekend Effects: An Analysis by Month of the Year, Week of the Month, and Industry," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5-6), pages 863-890.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    15. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The Day-of-the-Week Effect is Weak: Evidence from the European Real Estate Sector," Working Paper series 15-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-454, June.
    17. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008. "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583.
    18. Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. "New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-trading Periods: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1603-1614, December.
    19. Connolly, Robert A., 1989. "An Examination of the Robustness of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 133-169, June.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    21. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
    22. J. Andrew Coutts & Peter Hayes, 1999. "The weekend effect, the Stock Exchange Account and the Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Shares Index: 1987-1994," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 67-71.
    23. Cho, Young-Hyun & Linton, Oliver & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "Are there Monday effects in stock returns: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 736-755, December.
    24. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    25. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2009. "Calendar Anomalies in the Ghana Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, April.
    26. Peter J. Bush & John E. Stephens, 2016. "The Return of the Monday Effect in European Currency Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of the Economic Crisis on Market Efficiency," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 241-246, July.
    27. David E. Rapach & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regression Models of Aggregate U.S. Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 238-274.
    28. Solnik, Bruno & Bousquet, Laurence, 1990. "Day-of-the-week effect on the Paris Bourse," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 461-468, August.
    29. M. Berument & Nukhet Dogan, 2012. "Stock market return and volatility: day-of-the-week effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 282-302, April.
    30. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2005. "The long-run equity risk premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 185-194, December.
    31. Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Seasonal Movements in Security Prices II: Weekend, Holiday, Turn of the Month, and Intraday Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-177, Fall.
    32. Taylor, Stephen J., 1987. "Forecasting the volatility of currency exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 159-170.
    33. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
    34. Seyed Mehdian & Mark J. Perry, 2001. "The Reversal of the Monday Effect: New Evidence from US Equity Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7‐8), pages 1043-1065, September.
    35. Andrew Coutts & Christos Kaplanidis & Jennifer Roberts, 2000. "Security price anomalies in an emerging market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 561-571.
    36. Högholm, Kenneth & Knif, Johan, 2009. "The impact of portfolio aggregation on day-of-the-week effect: Evidence from Finland," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 67-79.
    37. Brian Lucey, 2002. "Market direction and moment seasonality: evidence from Irish equities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 657-664.
    38. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 2003. "The equity premium in retrospect," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 889-938, Elsevier.
    39. Zhang, Jilin & Lai, Yongzeng & Lin, Jianghong, 2017. "The day-of-the-Week effects of stock markets in different countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 47-62.
    40. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 399-426, July.
    41. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    42. Eric Jacquier & Alex Kane & Alan J. Marcus, 2005. "Optimal Estimation of the Risk Premium for the Long Run and Asset Allocation: A Case of Compounded Estimation Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 37-55.
    43. Taufiq Choudhry, 2000. "Day of the week effect in emerging Asian stock markets: evidence from the GARCH model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 235-242.
    44. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Estimation and Forecasting in Models with Multiple Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(3), pages 763-789.
    45. Jana Eklund & Sune Karlsson, 2007. "Forecast Combination and Model Averaging Using Predictive Measures," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 329-363.
    46. Ravindra Kamath & Rinjai Chakornpipat & Arjun Chatrath, 1998. "Return distributions and the day-of-the-week effects in the stock exchange of Thailand," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 97-107, June.
    47. M. J. Fields, 1934. "Security Prices and Stock Exchange Holidays in Relation to Short Selling," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7, pages 328-328.
    48. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
    49. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    50. Jorge Brusa & Pu Liu & Craig Schulman, 2003. "The Weekend and ‘Reverse’ Weekend Effects: An Analysis by Month of the Year, Week of the Month, and Industry," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 863-890, June.
    51. Richard Derrig & Elisha Orr, 2004. "Equity Risk Premium," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69.
    52. Steeley, James M., 2001. "A note on information seasonality and the disappearance of the weekend effect in the UK stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1941-1956, October.
    53. Siegel, Jeremy J., 1992. "The real rate of interest from 1800-1990 : A study of the U.S. and the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-252, April.
    54. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2005. "The Structural Break in the Equity Premium," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 181-191, April.
    55. Seyed Mehdian & Mark J. Perry, 2001. "The Reversal of the Monday Effect: New Evidence from US Equity Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7&8), pages 1043-1065.
    56. Penman, Stephen H., 1987. "The distribution of earnings news over time and seasonalities in aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-228, June.
    57. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-596, October.
    58. K. J. Martijn Cremers, 2002. "Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1223-1249.
    59. Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas & Spyros Papathanasiou, 2005. "The Day of the Week Effect Patterns on Stock Market Return and Volatility: Evidence for the Athens Stock Exchange," Finance 0512028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    61. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2005. "Testing the significance of calendar effects," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khushboo Aggarwal & Mithilesh Kumar Jha, 2023. "Stock returns seasonality in emerging asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 109-130, March.
    2. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
    3. Shanaev, Savva & Ghimire, Binam, 2022. "A generalised seasonality test and applications for cryptocurrency and stock market seasonality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 172-185.
    4. Iordanis Petsas & Fengyun Li & Jinghan Cai, 2023. "Work, leisure, and the Monday Blue: Does culture matter?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 203-212.
    5. Adefemi A. OBALADE & Akona TSHUTSHA & Lungelo MVUYANA & Nothando NDLOVU & Paul-Francois MUZINDUTSI, 2022. "Are Frontier African Markets Inefficient or Adaptive? Application of Rolling GARCH Models," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 6(1), pages 19-35.
    6. Chhabra, Damini & Gupta, Mohit, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in commodity markets for natural resources: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. He, Zhongfang & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Real time detection of structural breaks in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2628-2640, November.
    8. Nuray Tosunoğlu & Hilal Abacı & Gizem Ateş & Neslihan Saygılı Akkaya, 2023. "Artificial neural network analysis of the day of the week anomaly in cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samios, Yiannis, 2021. "Halloween effect and active fund management," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 534-544.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2009. "How Useful are Historical Data for Forecasting the Long-Run Equity Return Distribution?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 95-112.
    2. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "DOW effects in returns and in volatility of stock markets during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 47218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Apr 2013.
    3. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The day-of-the-week effect is weak: Evidence from the European Real Estate Sector," Discussion Paper Series 2015_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2015.
    4. Balaban, Ercan & Ozgen, Tolga & Karidis, Socrates, 2018. "Intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric conditional volatility: Firm-level evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 905-915.
    5. Sakhr Miss & Michel Charifzadeh & Tim A. Herberger, 2020. "Revisiting the monday effect: a replication study for the German stock market," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 257-273, May.
    6. Nickolaos Tsangarakis, 2007. "The day-of-the-week effect in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE)," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1447-1454.
    7. Chowdhury, Anup & Uddin, Moshfique & Anderson, Keith, 2022. "Trading behaviour and market sentiment: Firm-level evidence from an emerging Islamic market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Julijana Angelovska, 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Market Anomaly - Day of the Week Effect on a Small Emerging Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 314-322, January.
    9. Cho, Young-Hyun & Linton, Oliver & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "Are there Monday effects in stock returns: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 736-755, December.
    10. Kenneth Hogholm & Johan Knif & Seppo Pynnonen, 2011. "Common and local asymmetry and day-of-the-week effects among EU equity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 219-227.
    11. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, July.
    12. H. Kent Baker & Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2008. "The day‐of‐the‐week effect and conditional volatility: Sensitivity of error distributional assumptions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 280-295, December.
    13. Sungro Lee, Chang Sik Kim, In-Moo Kim & Chang Sik Kim & In-Moo Kim, 2012. "Testing the Monday Effect using High-frequency Intraday Returns: A Spatial Dominance Approach," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 28, pages 69-90.
    14. Högholm, Kenneth & Knif, Johan, 2009. "The impact of portfolio aggregation on day-of-the-week effect: Evidence from Finland," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 67-79.
    15. Meher Shiva Tadepalli & Ravi Kumar Jain, 2018. "Persistence of calendar anomalies: insights and perspectives from literature," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(1/2), pages 18-60, May.
    16. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2021. "The day-of-the-week-effect on the volatility of commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Kiymaz, Halil & Berument, Hakan, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
    18. Mehmet Dicle & John Levendis, 2014. "The day-of-the-week effect revisited: international evidence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 407-437, July.
    19. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 1998. "The dangers of data-driven inference: the case of calender effects in stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Diego Winkelried & Luis A. Iberico, 2018. "Calendar effects in Latin American stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1215-1235, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:80:y:2021:i:c:p:823-840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.