IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v38y2018i5p563-585.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics in sovereign credit risk markets

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey M. Ngene
  • Parker Benefield
  • Allen K. Lynch

Abstract

We employ asymmetric and nonlinear error correction models to characterize the price discovery and volatility interactions between the sovereign CDS and bond spreads for 22 reference entities. We find asymmetric, nonlinear, and bidirectional short and long‐run information flow in the first and second moments. The flow from the CDS to the bond market is stronger than in the reverse direction, demonstrating that CDS market is the more effective vehicle for price discovery. The persistence of volatility implies that informed trading occurs in the CDS markets. Both markets seem to converge to an equilibrium relationship when the basis is large.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey M. Ngene & Parker Benefield & Allen K. Lynch, 2018. "Asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics in sovereign credit risk markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 563-585, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:38:y:2018:i:5:p:563-585
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21896
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.21896
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.21896?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Jian Yang & David A. Bessler & David J. Leatham, 2001. "Asset storability and price discovery in commodity futures markets: A new look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-300, March.
    3. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    5. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    6. Singleton, Kenneth, 1987. "Speculation and the volatility of foreign currency exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 9-56, January.
    7. Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 911-930, December.
    8. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    9. Fathi Abid & Nader Naifar, 2006. "The Determinants Of Credit Default Swap Rates: An Explanatory Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 23-42.
    10. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2010. "Contagion inside the credit default swaps market: The case of the GM and Ford crisis in 2005," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 109-134, April.
    11. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    12. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    13. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    14. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    15. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    16. Das, Sanjiv & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2014. "Did CDS trading improve the market for corporate bonds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 495-525.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    18. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    19. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    20. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    21. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Ms. Yoon Sook Kim, 2004. "Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/027, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    23. Attanasio, Orazio P., 1990. "Asset price volatility and information structures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 159-164, June.
    24. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    25. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    26. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    27. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
    28. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    29. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
    30. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    31. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    32. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    33. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    34. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 279-303, April.
    35. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2009. "The Co†movement of Credit Default Swap, Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 529-562, June.
    36. Herbert A. Simon, 1991. "Bounded Rationality and Organizational Learning," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 125-134, February.
    37. Ng, Victor K. & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1996. "Price dynamics in refined petroleum spot and futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 359-388, February.
    38. M. Angeles Carnero, 2004. "Persistence and Kurtosis in GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 319-342.
    39. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    40. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Wang, Jinghua, 2024. "Arbitrage opportunities and feedback trading in regulated bitcoin futures market: An intraday analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 743-761.
    3. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg), 2024. "Contagion effects of permissionless, worthless cryptocurrency tokens: Evidence from the collapse of FTX," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Wei Huang & Shu Lin & Jian Yang, 2019. "Institutional quality and sovereign credit default swap spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 686-703, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    2. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Kabir Hassan, M. & Alam, Nafis, 2014. "Price discovery process in the emerging sovereign CDS and equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 117-132.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Gokus, Christian, 2011. "Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets Before and During the Financial Crisis – Evidence from Major Financial Institutions," Ruhr Economic Papers 243, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 716-741.
    5. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Wei, Xiong & Wei, Xiong, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109301, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    7. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
    8. repec:zbw:rwirep:0243 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Choi, Darwin, 2019. "Disposition sales and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 19-36.
    11. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    12. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    13. da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2014. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-27.
    14. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    15. ngene, Geoffrey & Hassan, Mohammad Kabir, 2012. "Momentum and Nonlinear Price Discovery in Sovereign Credit Risk and Equity Markets of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 46(2), pages 101-114.
    16. Ansgar Belke & Christian Gokus, 2011. "Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets Before and During the Financial Crisis – Evidence from Major Financial Institutions," Ruhr Economic Papers 0243, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Systematic noise," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 547-569, November.
    18. Kiesel, Florian, 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81265, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    19. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    20. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    21. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2020. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Activity in the Asia Pacific REIT Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:38:y:2018:i:5:p:563-585. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.