IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v11y2010i1p49-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing emerging market stock returns: An update

Author

Listed:
  • Barclay, Richard
  • Fletcher, Jonathan
  • Marshall, Andrew

Abstract

This paper tests how effective global models are at pricing the cross section of emerging market (EM) stock returns over a recent post-liberalization period. We apply the tests of Kan et al. (2009). Our results show that conditional models and currency factors do perform better than unconditional models and single factor models and there are some differences in the models in the two subperiods of our data. The important implication of this paper for international investors is none of our results are significant when we allow for model misspecification and none of the alternative models specifically outperform the World CAPM.

Suggested Citation

  • Barclay, Richard & Fletcher, Jonathan & Marshall, Andrew, 2010. "Pricing emerging market stock returns: An update," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 49-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:11:y:2010:i:1:p:49-61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566-0141(09)00051-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    3. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Does Emerging Market Exchange Risk Affect Global Equity Prices?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 511-540, September.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    5. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    6. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    7. Chaieb, Ines & Errunza, Vihang, 2007. "International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 543-578, November.
    8. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Local risk factors in emerging markets: Are they separately priced?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 444-461, October.
    9. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    10. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2009. "Model Comparison Using the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3449-3490, September.
    11. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    14. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    15. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
    16. Shanken, Jay, 1985. "Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 327-348, September.
    17. Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2006. "Specification tests of international asset pricing models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 275-307, March.
    18. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    20. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1995. "Portfolio Inefficiency and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 157-184, March.
    21. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 915-940, December.
    22. Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kuchin I.I., 2016. "Exchange rate risk exposure in asset pricing theory," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(3), pages 31-41.
    2. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Bota, Gabor, 2010. "Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil and gas sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 358-372, December.
    3. Aysun, Uluc & Guldi, Melanie, 2011. "Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 321-337.
    4. Grandes, Martin & Panigo, Demian T. & Pasquini, Ricardo A., 2010. "On the estimation of the cost of equity in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 373-389, December.
    5. Guyot, Alexis & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2014. "Foreign shocks and international cost of equity destabilization. Evidence from the MENA region," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 101-122.
    6. Yury Dranev & Sofya Fomkina, 2013. "An asymmetric approach to the cost of equity estimation: empirical evidence from Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 12/FE/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Varvara Nazarova, 2013. "An Empirical Study of Unsystematic Risk Factors in the Capital Asset Pricing Model: the Case of Russian Forestry Sector," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 1(4), pages 37-56.
    8. Harshita & Shveta Singh & Surendra S. Yadav, 2018. "Changing Nature of the Value Premium in the Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 22(2), pages 135-143, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    2. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lin, Qi, 2021. "The q5 model and its consistency with the intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Kim, Soohun & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2018. "Ex-post risk premia estimation and asset pricing tests using large cross sections: The regression-calibration approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 159-188.
    5. Kim, Soon-Ho & Kim, Dongcheol & Shin, Hyun-Soo, 2012. "Evaluating asset pricing models in the Korean stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 198-227.
    6. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
    7. repec:gnv:wpaper:unige:76321 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chung, Hyunchul & Majerbi, Basma & Rizeanu, Sorin, 2015. "Exchange risk premia and firm characteristics," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 96-125.
    9. Patrick Gagliardini & Elisa Ossola & Olivier Scaillet, 2016. "Time‐Varying Risk Premium in Large Cross‐Sectional Equity Data Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 985-1046, May.
    10. Dahlquist, Magnus & Sallstrom, Torbjorn, 2002. "An Evaluation of International Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance," Working Papers unige:125031, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    12. Cakici, Nusret & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Tan, Sinan, 2013. "Size, value, and momentum in emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 46-65.
    13. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2024. "Bank credit, consumption risk, and the cross-section of expected returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Qi Shi & Bin Li & Adrian (Wai Kong) Cheung & Richard Chung, 2017. "Augmenting the intertemporal CAPM with inflation: Further evidence from alternative models," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(4), pages 653-672, November.
    15. Gala, Vito D. & Pagliardi, Giovanni & Zenios, Stavros A., 2023. "Global political risk and international stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-102.
    16. Kim, Jinyong & Kim, Kun Ho & Lee, Jeong Hwan, 2021. "Cross-sectional tests of asset pricing models with full-rank mimicking portfolios," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Salem Boubakri & Cécile Couharde & Hélène Raymond, 2014. "Financial integration, financial turmoil and risk premia in emerging markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-52, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    19. Boubakri, Salem & Couharde, Cécile & Raymond, Hélène, 2016. "Effects of financial turmoil on financial integration and risk premia in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 120-138.
    20. Weidong Tian & Qing Zhou, 2017. "Asset Pricing Model Uncertainty: A Tradeoff between Bias and Variance," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 289-324, June.
    21. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 133-155.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:11:y:2010:i:1:p:49-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.