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Global political risk and international stock returns

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  • Gala, Vito D.
  • Pagliardi, Giovanni
  • Zenios, Stavros A.

Abstract

Using novel measures of politics-policy uncertainty we document predictable variation in stock market returns across countries. Country characteristics and existing global and local risk factors do not account for such predictability, leading to large abnormal returns up to 15% per annum. We identify a global political risk factor (P-factor) commanding a risk premium of 11% per annum. High political uncertainty countries covary positively with the P-factor, earning higher average returns. Augmenting the global market portfolio with the P-factor significantly reduces pricing errors and improves cross-sectional fit. Politics-policy uncertainty affects returns through both cash-flow and discount rate channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Gala, Vito D. & Pagliardi, Giovanni & Zenios, Stavros A., 2023. "Global political risk and international stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:72:y:2023:i:c:p:78-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political uncertainty; Policy uncertainty; International equities; Asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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