IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v305y2023i2p887-901.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prescriptive analytics for a multi-shift staffing problem

Author

Listed:
  • Notz, Pascal M.
  • Wolf, Peter K.
  • Pibernik, Richard

Abstract

Motivated by the work with an industry partner, this paper proposes and examines novel data-driven approaches to solve a certain type of capacity-sizing problem, which we term the multi-shift staffing problem (MSSP). In our MSSP, a company has to staff multiple shifts for each workday in the presence of uncertain arrival rates that vary throughout the day and patient “customers” that do not abandon the queue while waiting for a service, but who must be served by some pre-defined time. Drawing on established methods in both capacity management and prescriptive analytics, we propose to use fluid and stationary approximations of the demand arrival process to apply tailored prescriptive analytics approaches to determine staffing levels for multiple interrelated shifts. The prescriptive analytics approaches rely on machine learning techniques that incorporate a detailed representation of the non-stationary structure of arrivals and leverage extensive auxiliary data. In particular, we adapt established prescriptive analytics approaches—weighted sample average approximation and kernelized empirical risk minimization—and propose a new optimization prediction approach to solving the multi-shift staffing problem. Using a case study that is based on extensive data from our project partner, the maintenance service provider, we demonstrate the applicability of these approaches, highlight their benefits over traditional “estimate then optimize” approaches, and shed light on their structural properties and performance drivers.

Suggested Citation

  • Notz, Pascal M. & Wolf, Peter K. & Pibernik, Richard, 2023. "Prescriptive analytics for a multi-shift staffing problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(2), pages 887-901.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:305:y:2023:i:2:p:887-901
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221722004842
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gah-Yi Ban & Cynthia Rudin, 2019. "The Big Data Newsvendor: Practical Insights from Machine Learning," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 90-108, January.
    2. Xi Chen & Dave Worthington, 2017. "Staffing of time-varying queues using a geometric discrete time modelling approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 252(1), pages 63-84, May.
    3. Stolletz, Raik, 2008. "Approximation of the non-stationary M(t)/M(t)/c(t)-queue using stationary queueing models: The stationary backlog-carryover approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(2), pages 478-493, October.
    4. Athanassios N. Avramidis & Alexandre Deslauriers & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2004. "Modeling Daily Arrivals to a Telephone Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 896-908, July.
    5. Fabian Taigel & Jan Meller & Alexander Rothkopf, 2019. "Data-Driven Capacity Management with Machine Learning: A Novel Approach and a Case-Study for a Public Service Office," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Hui Yang & Robin Qiu (ed.), Advances in Service Science, pages 105-115, Springer.
    6. Dimitris Bertsimas & Nathan Kallus, 2020. "From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1025-1044, March.
    7. Ibrahim, Rouba & Ye, Han & L’Ecuyer, Pierre & Shen, Haipeng, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 865-874.
    8. Ebadi Jalal, Mona & Hosseini, Monireh & Karlsson, Stefan, 2016. "Forecasting incoming call volumes in call centers with recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 4811-4814.
    9. Song-Hee Kim & Ward Whitt, 2014. "Are Call Center and Hospital Arrivals Well Modeled by Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 464-480, July.
    10. Noah Gans & Haipeng Shen & Yong-Pin Zhou & Nikolay Korolev & Alan McCord & Herbert Ristock, 2015. "Parametric Forecasting and Stochastic Programming Models for Call-Center Workforce Scheduling," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 571-588, October.
    11. Defraeye, Mieke & Van Nieuwenhuyse, Inneke, 2016. "Staffing and scheduling under nonstationary demand for service: A literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 4-25.
    12. Rouba Ibrahim & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2013. "Forecasting Call Center Arrivals: Fixed-Effects, Mixed-Effects, and Bivariate Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-85, May.
    13. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.
    14. J. Michael Harrison & Assaf Zeevi, 2005. "A Method for Staffing Large Call Centers Based on Stochastic Fluid Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 20-36, September.
    15. Jan A. Van Mieghem, 2003. "Commissioned Paper: Capacity Management, Investment, and Hedging: Review and Recent Developments," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 269-302, July.
    16. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    17. Achal Bassamboo & Ramandeep S. Randhawa & Assaf Zeevi, 2010. "Capacity Sizing Under Parameter Uncertainty: Safety Staffing Principles Revisited," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(10), pages 1668-1686, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Notz, Pascal M. & Pibernik, Richard, 2024. "Explainable subgradient tree boosting for prescriptive analytics in operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 1119-1133.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theresa Maria Rausch & Tobias Albrecht & Daniel Baier, 2022. "Beyond the beaten paths of forecasting call center arrivals: on the use of dynamic harmonic regression with predictor variables," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 675-706, May.
    2. Smirnov, Dmitry & Huchzermeier, Arnd, 2020. "Analytics for labor planning in systems with load-dependent service times," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 668-681.
    3. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.
    4. van Eekelen, Wouter, 2023. "Distributionally robust views on queues and related stochastic models," Other publications TiSEM 9b99fc05-9d68-48eb-ae8c-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Ta, Thuy Anh & Chan, Wyean & Bastin, Fabian & L’Ecuyer, Pierre, 2021. "A simulation-based decomposition approach for two-stage staffing optimization in call centers under arrival rate uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 966-979.
    6. Ibrahim, Rouba & Ye, Han & L’Ecuyer, Pierre & Shen, Haipeng, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 865-874.
    7. Noah Gans & Haipeng Shen & Yong-Pin Zhou & Nikolay Korolev & Alan McCord & Herbert Ristock, 2015. "Parametric Forecasting and Stochastic Programming Models for Call-Center Workforce Scheduling," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 571-588, October.
    8. Heemskerk, M. & Mandjes, M. & Mathijsen, B., 2022. "Staffing for many-server systems facing non-standard arrival processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 900-913.
    9. Xu Sun & Yunan Liu, 2021. "Staffing many‐server queues with autoregressive inputs," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 312-326, April.
    10. Tolga Tezcan & Banafsheh Behzad, 2012. "Robust Design and Control of Call Centers with Flexible Interactive Voice Response Systems," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 386-401, July.
    11. Ding, S. & Koole, G. & van der Mei, R.D., 2015. "On the estimation of the true demand in call centers with redials and reconnects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 250-262.
    12. Boris N. Oreshkin & Nazim Réegnard & Pierre L’Ecuyer, 2016. "Rate-Based Daily Arrival Process Models with Application to Call Centers," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 510-527, April.
    13. Tevfik Aktekin & Refik Soyer, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of queues with impatient customers: Applications to call centers," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(6), pages 441-456, September.
    14. Ying Chen & John J. Hasenbein, 2017. "Staffing large-scale service systems with distributional uncertainty," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 55-79, October.
    15. Dipankar Bose & A. K. Chatterjee, 2015. "Specialized versus Multi-skilled Workforce: A Newsboy Approach for Call Centre Resource Planning," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 40(3-4), pages 252-267, August.
    16. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    17. Ward Whitt & Jingtong Zhao, 2017. "Many‐server loss models with non‐poisson time‐varying arrivals," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 177-202, April.
    18. Ward Whitt, 2006. "Staffing a Call Center with Uncertain Arrival Rate and Absenteeism," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 15(1), pages 88-102, March.
    19. Ran Liu & Michael E. Kuhl & Yunan Liu & James R. Wilson, 2019. "Modeling and Simulation of Nonstationary Non-Poisson Arrival Processes," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 347-366, April.
    20. Barış Ata & Xiaoshan Peng, 2020. "An Optimal Callback Policy for General Arrival Processes: A Pathwise Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 327-347, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:305:y:2023:i:2:p:887-901. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.