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Simulation-based estimation of the real demand in bike-sharing systems in the presence of censoring

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  • Negahban, Ashkan

Abstract

Data on successful bike pickups/drop-offs censor the demand from customers/riders that were unable to pickup/drop-off a bike due to bike/dock unavailability (i.e., balks). The objective of this paper is two-fold: (1) provide a formal comparison between the distribution of satisfied bike/dock demand and the true (latent) demand in bike-sharing systems through simulation experiments and nonparametric bootstrap tests to show when and how the two may differ; and, (2) propose a novel methodology combining simulation, bootstrapping, and subset selection that harnesses the useful partial information in every bike pickup/drop-off observation (even if it is subject to censoring) to estimate the true demand in situations where data filtering/cleaning approaches commonly used in the bike-sharing literature fail due to lack of valid data. The results reveal that the distribution of inter-pickup/drop-off times may differ (statistically) from the distribution of the actual inter-arrival time of customers/bikes primarily for higher percentile values and even if the demand rate is slower than the supply rate, especially if customer/bike inter-arrival times follow a heavy-tailed distribution. The statistical power of the proposed demand estimation approach in identifying an appropriate model for the underlying demand distribution is tested through simulation experiments as well as a real-world application. The paper has important academic and practical impacts by providing additional means to obtain and use statistically valid demand estimates, enhancing decision-making related to the design and operation of bike-sharing systems.

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  • Negahban, Ashkan, 2019. "Simulation-based estimation of the real demand in bike-sharing systems in the presence of censoring," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 317-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:277:y:2019:i:1:p:317-332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.02.013
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    3. Huang, Di & Chen, Xinyuan & Liu, Zhiyuan & Lyu, Cheng & Wang, Shuaian & Chen, Xuewu, 2020. "A static bike repositioning model in a hub-and-spoke network framework," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Wang, Jianbiao & Miwa, Tomio & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2023. "Recursive decomposition probability model for demand estimation of street-hailing taxis utilizing GPS trajectory data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 171-195.

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