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A group evidential reasoning approach based on expert reliability

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  • Fu, Chao
  • Yang, Jian-Bo
  • Yang, Shan-Lin

Abstract

The reliability of an expert is an important concept in multiple attribute group decision analysis (MAGDA). However, reliability is rarely considered in MAGDA, or it may be simply assumed that all experts are fully reliable and thus their reliabilities do not need to be considered explicitly. In fact, any experts can only be bounded rational and their various degrees of reliabilities may significantly influence MAGDA results. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the evidential reasoning rule to explicitly measure the reliability of each expert in a group and use expert weights and reliabilities to combine expert assessments. Two sets of assessments, i.e., original assessments and updated assessments provided after group analysis and discussion are taken into account to measure expert reliabilities. When the assessments of some experts are incomplete while global ignorance is incurred, pairs of optimization problems are constructed to decide interval-valued expert reliabilities. The resulting expert reliabilities are applied to combine the expert assessments of alternatives on each attribute and then to generate the aggregated assessments of alternatives. An industry evaluation problem in Wuhu, a city in Anhui Province of China is analyzed by using the proposed method as a real case study to demonstrate its detailed implementation process, validity, and applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Fu, Chao & Yang, Jian-Bo & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2015. "A group evidential reasoning approach based on expert reliability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 886-893.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:246:y:2015:i:3:p:886-893
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.042
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    4. Quan, Ji & Zhou, Yawen & Wang, Xianjia & Yang, Jian-Bo, 2020. "Evidential reasoning based on imitation and aspiration information in strategy learning promotes cooperation in optional spatial public goods game," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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    6. Ran Fang & Huchang Liao, 2021. "Emergency material reserve location selection by a time-series-based evidential reasoning approach under bounded rationality," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1397-1417, August.
    7. Chaoyu Zheng & Benhong Peng & Xuan Zhao & Anxia Wan & Mu Yue, 2023. "A novel assessment approach based on group evidential reasoning and risk attitude," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 925-964, August.
    8. Zhao, Lu-Tao & Liu, Zhao-Ting & Cheng, Lei, 2021. "How will China's coal industry develop in the future? A quantitative analysis with policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Chao Fu & Weiyong Liu & Wenjun Chang, 2020. "Data-driven multiple criteria decision making for diagnosis of thyroid cancer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 293(2), pages 833-862, October.
    10. Deng, Yong, 2016. "Deng entropy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 549-553.
    11. Meho Saša Kovačević & Lovorka Librić & Gordana Ivoš & Anita Cerić, 2020. "Application of Reliability Analysis for Risk Ranking in a Levee Reconstruction Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Deyun Zhou & Yongchuan Tang & Wen Jiang, 2017. "An Improved Belief Entropy and Its Application in Decision-Making," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-15, March.
    13. Xue, Min & Fu, Chao & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2020. "Group consensus reaching based on a combination of expert weight and expert reliability," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    14. Min Xue & Chao Fu & Shan-Lin Yang, 2021. "Dynamic Expert Reliability Based Feedback Mechanism in Consensus Reaching Process with Distributed Preference Relations," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 341-375, April.

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