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Fertility choice, mortality expectations, and interdependent preferences—An empirical analysis

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  • Canning, David
  • Günther, Isabel
  • Linnemayr, Sebastian
  • Bloom, David

Abstract

We investigate the empirical relationship between child mortality and fertility across 46 low and middle income countries. Specifically, we model the effect of mortality expectations and interdependent fertility preferences on fertility. The direct marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility is larger than zero but less than unity. This implies that a decrease in mortality rates leads to a decrease in children born but to an increase in the number of surviving children and hence the rate of population growth. Taking into account interdependent fertility preferences, whereby an individual's fertility choice affects the fertility decisions of others, the marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility becomes one. Hence, if we allow for both mortality expectations and the amplifying effect of interdependent fertility preferences, a decrease in child mortality has no net effect on the rate of population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Canning, David & Günther, Isabel & Linnemayr, Sebastian & Bloom, David, 2013. "Fertility choice, mortality expectations, and interdependent preferences—An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-289.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:63:y:2013:i:c:p:273-289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.07.005
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    3. Mahesh Karra & Joshua Wilde, 2024. "Economic Foundations of Contraceptive Transitions: Theories and a Review of the Evidence," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S2), pages 539-569, December.
    4. Natallia Gray & Gabriel Picone, 2018. "Evidence of Large-Scale Social Interactions in Mammography in the United States," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(4), pages 441-457, December.
    5. Bénédicte Apouey & Gabriel Picone, 2014. "Social Interactions And Malaria Preventive Behaviors In Sub‐Saharan Africa," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(9), pages 994-1012, September.
    6. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2014. "Contraception and the fertility transition," ISU General Staff Papers 201410220700001028, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    8. Nandi, Arindam & Summan, Amit & Ngô, Thoại D. & Bloom, David E., 2024. "Childhood vaccinations and the demand for children: Long-term evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. Portner, Claus C., 2023. "How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?," SocArXiv jf9um, Center for Open Science.
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    11. Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen, 2016. "Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 55-83, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortality; Fertility; Social spillovers; Demographic transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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