IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v170y2024ics0014292124001958.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate defaults and financial adaptation

Author

Listed:
  • Phan, Toàn
  • Schwartzman, Felipe

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk. We find that disaster risk and default risk together lead to slow post-disaster recovery and heightened borrowing costs. Calibrating the model to Mexico, we find that the increase in cyclone risk due to climate change leads to a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent 0.95% consumption drop. However, financial adaptation via catastrophe bonds and disaster insurance can reduce these losses by about 21%. Our study highlights the importance of financial frictions in analyzing climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Phan, Toàn & Schwartzman, Felipe, 2024. "Climate defaults and financial adaptation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:170:y:2024:i:c:s0014292124001958
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292124001958
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104866?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani & Filippo Natoli, 2023. "Flight to climatic safety: local natural disasters and global portfolio flows," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1420, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Phan, Toan, 2017. "Sovereign debt signals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 157-165.
    3. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2004. "Empirical Studies of Financial Innovation: Lots of Talk, Little Action?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 116-144, March.
    4. Toan Phan, 2017. "Nominal Sovereign Debt," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1303-1316, November.
    5. Klaus Adam & Michael Grill, 2017. "Optimal Sovereign Default," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 128-164, January.
    6. Bai, Yan & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "Financial integration and international risk sharing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 17-32.
    7. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    8. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    9. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    11. Borensztein, Eduardo & Cavallo, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier, 2017. "The welfare gains from macro-insurance against natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 142-156.
    12. Riccardo Colacito & Bridget Hoffmann & Toan Phan, 2019. "Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 313-368, March.
    13. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2023. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1763-1802, September.
    14. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    15. Juarez-Torres, Miriam & Puigvert, Jonathan E., 2019. "The Effect of Tropical Cyclones in Economic Activities: Micro Level Evidence from Mexico for Secondary and Tertiary Activities," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291044, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    17. Toan Phan, 2016. "Information, Insurance and the Sustainability of Sovereign Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 93-108, October.
    18. Simon Dietz & Nicholas Stern, 2015. "Endogenous Growth, Convexity of Damage and Climate Risk: How Nordhaus' Framework Supports Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 574-620, March.
    19. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    21. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    22. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    23. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    24. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2020. "Natural disasters and risk aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 818-835.
    25. Javier Bianchi & Pablo Ottonello & Ignacio Presno, 2023. "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(9), pages 2328-2369.
    26. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    27. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    28. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Feeling the heat: Climate risks and the cost of sovereign borrowing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 920-936.
    29. Yongyang Cai & Thomas S. Lontzek, 2019. "The Social Cost of Carbon with Economic and Climate Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2684-2734.
    30. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March.
    31. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    32. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 33-52, Fall.
    33. Jeroen Klomp, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Natural Disasters in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 1326-1341, November.
    34. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    35. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    36. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2015. "A Seniority Arrangement for Sovereign Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3740-3765, December.
    37. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    38. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    39. Grossman, Herschel I. & Van Huyck, John B., 1993. "Nominal sovereign debt, risk shifting, and reputation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 341-352.
    40. V. Filipe Martins-Da-Rocha & Toan Phan & Yiannis Vailakis, 2022. "Pecuniary Externalities in Competitive Economies with Limited Pledgeability," Working Papers hal-03909596, HAL.
    41. Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2015. "Insurance and climate-driven extreme events," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 59-73.
    42. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
    43. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-1097, December.
    44. Stephie Fried, 2022. "Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 3303-3344.
    45. Michael Greenstone & Elizabeth Kopits & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Developing a Social Cost of Carbon for US Regulatory Analysis: A Methodology and Interpretation," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46, January.
    46. William D. Nordhaus, 2010. "The Economics Of Hurricanes And Implications Of Global Warming," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-20.
    47. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1024-1066.
    49. Robert Mendelsohn & Kerry Emanuel & Shun Chonabayashi & Laura Bakkensen, 2012. "The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 205-209, March.
    50. Goetz von Peter & Sebastian von Dahlen & Sweta C Saxena, 2012. "Unmitigated disasters? New evidence on the macroeconomic cost of natural catastrophes," BIS Working Papers 394, Bank for International Settlements.
    51. Cavallo, Eduardo & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Natural Disasters and the Economy — A Survey," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 63-102, May.
    52. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2015. "Geography, Depreciation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 252-256, May.
    54. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    55. John Hassler & Per Krusell & Conny Olovsson, 2021. "Presidential Address 2020: Suboptimal Climate Policy [“Climate Change Uncertainty Spillover in the Macroeconomy.”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 2895-2928.
    56. Alessandro Dovis, 2019. "Efficient Sovereign Default," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 282-312.
    57. Park, JungJae, 2017. "Sovereign default and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 119-133.
    58. Laura A. Bakkensen & Robert O. Mendelsohn, 2016. "Risk and Adaptation: Evidence from Global Hurricane Damages and Fatalities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 555-587.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toan Phan & Felipe Schwartzman, 2023. "Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation," Working Paper 23-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    3. Phan, Toan, 2017. "A model of sovereign debt with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Roettger, Joost, 2019. "Discretionary monetary and fiscal policy with endogenous sovereign risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 44-66.
    5. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    6. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    7. Daniel, Betty C. & Nam, Jinwook, 2022. "The Greek debt crisis: Excusable vs. strategic default," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Thomas Douenne, 2020. "Disaster Risks, Disaster Strikes, and Economic Growth: the Role of Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 251-272, October.
    9. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Sovereign Debt Disclosure," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1094, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings: Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint Tightness," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0323, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    11. Park, JungJae, 2017. "Sovereign default and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 119-133.
    12. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    13. Nikolai Stähler, 2013. "Recent Developments In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 605-633, September.
    14. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "International Reserves Management in a Model of Partial Sovereign Default," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_14, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    16. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    19. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Sergio Rebelo & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2018. "Rare Disasters, Financial Development, and Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 25031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Disasters; Sovereign default; Emerging markets; Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:170:y:2024:i:c:s0014292124001958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.