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The Welfare Gains from Macro-Insurance Against Natural Disasters

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  • Eduardo Borensztein
  • Eduardo Cavallo
  • Olivier Jeanne

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains that a small open economy can derive from insuring against natural disasters with catastrophe (CAT) bonds. We calibrate the model by reference to the risk of earthquakes, floods and storms in developing countries. We find that the countries most vulnerable to these risks would find it optimal to use CAT bonds for insurance only if the cost of issuing these bonds were significantly smaller than it is in the data. The welfare gains from CAT bonds range from small to substantial depending on how insurance affects the country's external borrowing constraint. The option of using CAT bonds may bring a welfare gain of several percentage points of annual consumption by improving external debt sustainability. These large gains disappear if the country can opportunistically default on its external debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo & Olivier Jeanne, 2015. "The Welfare Gains from Macro-Insurance Against Natural Disasters," NBER Working Papers 21674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21674
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    5. Toan Phan & Felipe Schwartzman, 2023. "Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation," Working Paper 23-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Alexis Louaas & Pierre Picard, 2022. "Optimal Nuclear Liability Insurance," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(1), pages 97-115, January.
    7. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Sovereign Cocos," Working Papers 139, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Kursat Onder & Mr. Francisco Roch, 2022. "Sovereign Cocos," IMF Working Papers 2022/078, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Malik, Ihtisham A. & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Alam, Md Samsul, 2023. "Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    9. Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo & Mr. Leo Bonato & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas, 2019. "Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: The Case of St. Lucia," IMF Working Papers 2019/054, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Xia Chen & Chun-Ping Chang, 2021. "The shocks of natural hazards on financial systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2327-2359, February.
    11. Hiro Ito & Robert N. McCauley, 2022. "A Disaster Under-(Re)Insurance Puzzle: Home Bias in Disaster Risk-Bearing," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 735-772, December.
    12. Rodolfo Manuelli, 2017. "Natural Disasters and Growth: The Role of Foreign Aid and Disaster Insurance," 2017 Meeting Papers 1118, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Razmig Keucheyan, 2018. "Insuring Climate Change: New Risks and the Financialization of Nature," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 484-501, March.
    14. Alexis Louaas & Pierre Picard, 2014. "Optimal Insurance For Catastrophic Risk: Theory And Application To Nuclear Corporate Liability," Working Papers hal-01097897, HAL.
    15. Umberto Monarca & Ernesto Cassetta & Alessandro Sarra & Cesare Pozzi, 2015. "Integrating renewable energy sources into electricity markets: Power system operation, resource adequacy and market design," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 149-166.
    16. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2024. "Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1096, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. Valeria Terrones & Richard S.J. Tol, 2022. "Relevance of financial development and fiscal stability in dealing with disasters in Emerging Economies," Working Paper Series 0722, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    18. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2023. "Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Thomas Gries & Wim Naudé, 2021. "Extreme Events, Entrepreneurial Start-Ups, and Innovation: Theoretical Conjectures," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 329-353, October.
    20. Clarke,Daniel Jonathan & Wren-Lewis,Liam, 2016. "Solving commitment problems in disaster risk finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7720, The World Bank.
    21. Marto, Ricardo & Papageorgiou, Chris & Klyuev, Vladimir, 2018. "Building resilience to natural disasters: An application to small developing states," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 574-586.
    22. Eduardo Cavallo & Bridget Hoffmann & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Disasters and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Introduction to the Special Issue," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 135-145, July.
    23. Valente, Donatella & Miglietta, Pier Paolo & Porrini, Donatella & Pasimeni, Maria Rita & Zurlini, Giovanni & Petrosillo, Irene, 2019. "A first analysis on the need to integrate ecological aspects into financial insurance," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 392(C), pages 117-127.
    24. repec:ags:aaea22:335544 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Malin Song & Qianqian Du, 2019. "Analysis and exploration of damage-reduction measures for flood disasters in China," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 795-810, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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