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Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change

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  • Harrison Hong
  • Neng Wang
  • Jinqiang Yang

Abstract

Emissions abatement alone cannot address the consequences of global warming for weather disasters. We model how society adapts to manage disaster risks to capital stock. Optimal adaptation—a mix of firm‐level efforts and public spending—varies as society learns about the adverse consequences of global warming for disaster arrivals. Taxes on capital are needed alongside those on carbon to achieve the first best. We apply our model to country‐level control of flooding from tropical cyclones. Learning rationalizes empirical findings, including the responses of Tobin's q, equity risk premium, and risk‐free rate to disaster arrivals. Adaptation is more valuable under learning than a counterfactual no‐learning environment. Learning alters social‐cost‐of‐carbon projections due to the interaction of uncertainty resolution and endogenous adaptive response.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2023. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1763-1802, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:91:y:2023:i:5:p:1763-1802
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Van Der Straten, Yasmine & Perotti, Enrico & Van Der Ploeg, Frederick, 2024. "Political Economy of Climate Change Adaptation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ramírez, Hugo E. & Serrano, Rafael, 2025. "Optimal investment with insurable background risk and nonlinear portfolio allocation frictions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 485(C).
    5. Yingjie Niu & Zhentao Zou, 2024. "Robust Abatement Policy with Uncertainty About Environmental Disasters," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(4), pages 933-965, April.
    6. repec:hal:journl:hal-04804492 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Abderrahim Assab, 2024. "Theoretical Foundation for Pricing Climate-Related Loss and Damage in Infrastructure Financing," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Liu, Xiao & Wang, Ziyu & Zhu, Minxing, 2024. "Asset prices’ responses to public information manipulation: The role of market feedback," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    9. Meng, Weizhen & Li, Shilin & Yang, Jinqiang, 2024. "Mitigating disaster risks caused by carbon emissions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

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