IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v51y2015i6p1326-1341.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign Risk and Natural Disasters in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jeroen Klomp

Abstract

In this article, we explore the effect of large-scale natural disasters on sovereign default risk. We use a heterogeneous dynamic panel model including a set of more than 380 large-scale natural disasters for about forty emerging market countries in the period 1999–2010. After testing for the sensitivity of the results, our main findings suggest that natural disasters significantly increase the sovereign default premium paid by bond holders. That is, investors perceive natural disasters as an adverse shock that makes the government debt less sustainable and eventually triggers a sovereign default. In particular, it turns out that geophysical and meteorological disasters increase the credit default premium in both the long run as well as in the short run, while hydrological disasters have only a temporary effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen Klomp, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Natural Disasters in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 1326-1341, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:51:y:2015:i:6:p:1326-1341
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1011530
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1011530
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1011530?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. NguyenHuu, Tam, 2022. "The impacts of rare disasters on asset returns and risk premiums in advanced economies (1870–2015)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    2. I. Koetsier, 2017. "The fiscal impact of natural disasters," Working Papers 17-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
    3. Di Tommaso, Caterina & Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2023. "The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Toan Phan & Felipe Schwartzman, 2023. "Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation," Working Paper 23-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2008, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Climate in the Long Run," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 1, pages 3-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "State capacity and vulnerability to natural disasters," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 20, pages 434-457, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Gómez, Santiago & Noy, Ilan & Strobl, Eric, 2024. "Climate Change, Hurricanes, and Sovereign Debt in the Caribbean Basin," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13351, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Andres Gonzalez & Mr. Alejandro D Guerson, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 2023/138, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change," IMF Working Papers 2019/186, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:51:y:2015:i:6:p:1326-1341. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.