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Consistency without Inference: Instrumental Variables in Practical Application

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  • Young, Alwyn

Abstract

I use Monte Carlo simulations, the jackknife and multiple forms of the bootstrap to study a comprehensive sample of 1309 instrumental variables regressions in 30 papers published in the journals of the American Economic Association. Monte Carlo simulations based upon published regressions show that non-iid error processes in highly leveraged regressions, both prominent features of published work, adversely affect the size and power of IV tests, while increasing the bias and mean squared error of IV relative to OLS. Weak instrument pre-tests based upon F-statistics are found to be largely uninformative of both size and bias. In published papers IV has little power as, despite producing substantively different estimates, it rarely rejects the OLS point estimate or the null that OLS is unbiased, while the statistical significance of excluded instruments is exaggerated.

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  • Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Consistency without Inference: Instrumental Variables in Practical Application," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:147:y:2022:i:c:s001429212200054x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104112
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    1. Angrist, Joshua & Kolesár, Michal, 2024. "One instrument to rule them all: The bias and coverage of just-ID IV," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
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    3. Wang, Wenjie & Zhang, Yichong, 2024. "Wild bootstrap inference for instrumental variables regressions with weak and few clusters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(1).
    4. Jordan Adamson & Lucas Rentschler, 2023. "Criminal justice from a public choice perspective: an introduction to the special issue," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(3), pages 223-227, September.
    5. Zhaonan Qu & Yongchan Kwon, 2024. "Distributionally Robust Instrumental Variables Estimation," Papers 2410.15634, arXiv.org.
    6. Eberhardt, Markus, 2022. "Democracy, growth, heterogeneity, and robustness," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. James K. Hammitt & Jin-Tan Liu & Jin-Long Liu, 2022. "Is survival a luxury good? Income elasticity of the value per statistical life," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 239-260, December.
    8. Keane, Michael & Neal, Timothy, 2023. "Instrument strength in IV estimation and inference: A guide to theory and practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1625-1653.
    9. Bensch, Gunther & Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Vance, Colin, 2023. "Spotlight on Researcher Decisions – Infrastructure Evaluation, Instrumental Variables, and Specification Screening," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277703, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Arendt, Jacob Nielsen & Bolvig, Iben, 2023. "Trade-offs between work-first and language-first strategies for refugees," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Nvuh‐Njoya Youssouf & Keneck‐Massil Joseph & Yogo Urbain Thierry, 2024. "Constitutional instability and foreign direct investment in Africa," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 3-23, January.
    12. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Vance, Colin & Bensch, Gunther, 2022. "Spotlight on researcher decisions – Infrastructure evaluation, instrumental variables, and first-stage specification screening," OSF Preprints sw6kd, Center for Open Science.
    13. Zhao, Qiyi C., 2023. "Rethinking “Distance From”: Lessons from Wittenberg and Mainz," MPRA Paper 118414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
    15. Jens Klooster & Mikhail Zhelonkin, 2024. "Outlier robust inference in the instrumental variable model with applications to causal effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 86-106, January.
    16. Slichter, David & Tran, Nhan, 2023. "Do better journals publish better estimates?," MPRA Paper 118433, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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