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Climbing the ranks: incumbency effects in party-list systems

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  • Fiva, Jon H.
  • Røhr, Helene Lie

Abstract

Incumbents tend to have a solid electoral advantage in candidate-centered electoral settings. Do similar incumbency effects exist in more party-centered environments? We estimate incumbency effects in an open-list proportional representation system, exploiting that seats are first allocated across parties, and then to candidates within party lists. Using data from Norwegian local elections 2003–2015, we document that a candidate that barely wins a seat in the local council has about a 9 percentage points (43%) higher probability of being elected in the next election compared to a candidate that just misses out on a seat on the same party list. We find no evidence that voters contribute to this personal incumbency advantage. Rather, it seems as if party elites are instrumental in securing the electoral success of their party affiliates. We show that incumbents and non-incumbents run again in the subsequent election at about equal rates, but that incumbents tend to advance in the party hierarchy and obtain safer ballot positions in future elections, which is what ultimately leads to electoral success.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiva, Jon H. & Røhr, Helene Lie, 2018. "Climbing the ranks: incumbency effects in party-list systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 142-156.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:142-156
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.09.011
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    8. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    9. Leandro de Magalhaes & Salomo Hirvonen, 2019. "The Incumbent-Challenger Advantage and the Winner-Runner-up Advantage," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/710, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    10. Fiva, Jon H. & Izzo, Federica & Tukiainen, Janne, 2024. "The gatekeeper’s dilemma: Political selection or team effort," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    11. Song, B.K., 2022. "The longer-term electoral effect of carrying a state in U.S. presidential elections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Heléne Berg, 2018. "Is It Worth It? On the Returns to Holding Political Office," CESifo Working Paper Series 7406, CESifo.
    13. Berg, Heléne, 2020. "On the returns to holding political office (Is it worth it?)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 840-865.
    14. Nyhus, Ole Henning & Strøm, Bjarne, 2023. "School spending and extension of the youth voting franchise: Quasi-experimental evidence from Norway," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Berg, Heléne, 2018. "Is It Worth It? On the Returns to Holding Political Office," Research Papers in Economics 2018:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incumbency advantage; Proportional representation; Regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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