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The longer-term electoral effect of carrying a state in U.S. presidential elections

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  • Song, B.K.

Abstract

Under the U.S. Electoral College system, battleground states receive a degree of attention from candidates and political parties that is out of proportion to their contribution to the vote total because they can effectively determine the outcome of a presidential election. Although the public and researchers tend to focus on the immediate impact of winning a battleground state on the current contest, the outcome of a following election may also be affected. In this paper, I investigate the effect of winning a state on the outcome of the next election, using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. The results of my RD analyses indicate that winning a state increases the party’s vote share in the next election. I also find evidence of a positive spillover effect of winning a state in a presidential election on later House of Representatives elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Song, B.K., 2022. "The longer-term electoral effect of carrying a state in U.S. presidential elections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:216:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522001677
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electoral college; US presidential election; Regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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