IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v98y2000i1p1-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The strength of evidence for unit autoregressive roots and structural breaks: A Bayesian perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Marriott, John
  • Newbold, Paul

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Marriott, John & Newbold, Paul, 2000. "The strength of evidence for unit autoregressive roots and structural breaks: A Bayesian perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-25, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:98:y:2000:i:1:p:1-25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-4076(99)00077-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geweke, John, 1994. "Priors for Macroeconomic Time Series and Their Application," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 609-632, August.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    3. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October.
    5. Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "On Jeffreys Prior when Using the Exact Likelihood Function," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 633-644, August.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. John Marriott & Paul Newbold, 1998. "Bayesian Comparison of ARIMA and Stationary ARMA Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 66(3), pages 323-336, December.
    8. Chu, Chia-Shang James & White, Halbert, 1992. "A Direct Test for Changing Trend," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 289-299, July.
    9. Lubrano, Michel, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in a Bayesian framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-109, September.
    10. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    12. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-448, November.
    13. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    14. Arnold Zellner, 1997. "Bayesian Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 825.
    15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    16. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    17. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
    18. Hoek, Henk & Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Herman K., 1995. "Classical and Bayesian aspects of robust unit root inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 27-59, September.
    19. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    20. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    21. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March.
    22. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec..
    23. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-364, Oct.-Dec..
    24. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    25. Pierre Perron, 1994. "Trend, Unit Root and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Time Series," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 4, pages 113-146, Palgrave Macmillan.
    26. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
    27. Zivot, Eric, 1994. "A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 552-578, August.
    28. Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 645-671, August.
    29. Bai, Jushan, 1998. "A Note On Spurious Break," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 663-669, October.
    30. Schotman, Peter C., 1994. "Priors For The Ar(1) Model: Parameterization Issues and Time Series Considerations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 579-595, August.
    31. Jae-Young Kim, 1998. "Large Sample Properties of Posterior Densities, Bayesian Information Criterion and the Likelihood Principle in Nonstationary Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 359-380, March.
    32. Nunes, Luis C. & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Newbold, Paul, 1995. "Spurious Break," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 736-749, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Vosseler & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Bayesian analysis of periodic unit roots in the presence of a break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3841-3862, August.
    2. Massimo Caruso, 2004. "Infrequent Shocks, Output Persistence and Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 243-260, March.
    3. Wang, Dabin & Tomek, William G., 2004. "Commodity Prices And Unit Root Tests," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20141, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Markku Lanne & Arto Luoma & Jani Luoto, 2012. "Bayesian Model Selection And Forecasting In Noncausal Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 812-830, August.
    5. Brian Hanlon & Catherine Forbes, 2002. "Model Selection Criteria for Segmented Time Series from a Bayesian Approach to Information Compression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser & Abhijit Sharma, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3805-3818.
    7. Loukia Meligkotsidou & Elias Tzavalis & Ioannis D. Vrontos, 2004. "A Bayesian Analysis of Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in the Level and the Error Variance of Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 514, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Vosseler, Alexander, 2016. "Bayesian model selection for unit root testing with multiple structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 616-630.
    9. Hultblad Brigitta & Karlsson Sune, 2008. "Bayesian Simultaneous Determination of Structural Breaks and Lag Lengths," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, September.
    10. Penelope Smith, 2006. "Bayesian Inference for a Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n20, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Wang, Dabin & Tomek, William G., 2004. "Commodity Prices And Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 127145, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    12. Luoto, Jani, 2011. "Aggregate infrastructure capital stock and long-run growth: Evidence from Finnish data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 181-191, March.
    13. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Tzavalis, Elias & Vrontos, Ioannis, 2017. "On Bayesian analysis and unit root testing for autoregressive models in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 70-90.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vosseler, Alexander, 2016. "Bayesian model selection for unit root testing with multiple structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 616-630.
    2. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Loukia Meligkotsidou & Elias Tzavalis & Ioannis D. Vrontos, 2004. "A Bayesian Analysis of Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in the Level and the Error Variance of Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 514, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    7. Magris Martin & Iosifidis Alexandros, 2021. "Approximate Bayes factors for unit root testing," Papers 2102.10048, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    9. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser & Abhijit Sharma, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3805-3818.
    10. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Identification of the true break date in innovational outlier unit root tests," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 152, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    11. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Recursive adjustment, unit root tests and structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 62-82, January.
    12. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2002. "Testing for stationarity with a break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 63-99, May.
    13. Aparicio, Felipe M. & García, Ana, 2003. "Range unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws031126, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    14. Charley Xia and William Griffiths, 2012. "Bayesian Unit Root Testing: The Effect Of Choice Of Prior On Test Outcomes," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1152, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Wang, Dabin & Tomek, William G., 2004. "Commodity Prices And Unit Root Tests," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20141, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Montanes, Antonio & Olloqui, Irene & Calvo, Elena, 2005. "Selection of the break in the Perron-type tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 41-64.
    17. Monojit Chatterji & Homagni Choudhury, 2010. "Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 245, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    18. Marcet, Albert & Jarociński, Marek, 2010. "Autoregressions in small samples, priors about observables and initial conditions," Working Paper Series 1263, European Central Bank.
    19. Dimitrios Dadakas & Christos Karpetis & Athanasios Fassas & Erotokritos Varelas, 2016. "Sectoral Differences in the Choice of the Time Horizon during Estimation of the Unconditional Stock Beta," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Miguel Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2004. "Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 243-266, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:98:y:2000:i:1:p:1-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.