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Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems

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  • Fanelli, Luca
  • Paruolo, Paolo

Abstract

This paper discusses summary measures for the speed of adjustment in possibly cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes (VAR). In particular we propose long-run half-lives, based on interim and total multipliers. We discuss their relation with Granger-noncausality and other types of half-life, which are shown to convey different information, except in the univariate AR(1) case. We present likelihood-based inference on long-run half-lives, regarded as discrete functions of parameters in the VAR model. It is shown how asymptotic confidence regions can be defined. An empirical illustration concerning speed of adjustment to purchasing-power parity is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:158:y:2010:i:1:p:130-141
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Half-life [pi]-life Speed of adjustment Impact factors Vector equilibrium correction Interim and total multipliers;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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