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Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle

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  • Lopez, C.
  • Murray, C J.
  • Papell, D H.

Abstract

Using median-unbiased estimation based on Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions, recent research has questioned the validity of Rogoff's "remarkable consensus" of 3-5 year half-lives of deviations from PPP. The confidence intervals of these half-life estimates, however, are extremely wide, with lower bounds of about one year and upper bounds of infinity. We extend median-unbiased estimation to the DF-GLS regression of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996). We find that combining median-unbiased estimation with this regression has the potential to tighten confidence intervals for the half-lives. Using long horizon real exchange rate data, we find that the typical lower bound of the confidence intervals for median-unbiased half-lives is just under 3 years. Thus, while previous confidence intervals for median-unbiased half-lives are consistent with virtually anything, our tighter confidence intervals are inconsistent with economic models with nominal rigidities as candidates for explaining the observed behavior of real exchange rates and move us away from solving the PPP puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Lopez, C. & Murray, C J. & Papell, D H., 2011. "Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," Working papers 338, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:338
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PPP puzzle; median-unbiased; persistence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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