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Exploring the ecosystem resilience concept with land surface model scenarios

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  • Seixas, Hugo Tameirão
  • Brunsell, Nathaniel A.
  • Moraes, Elisabete Caria
  • de Oliveira, Gabriel
  • Mataveli, Guilherme

Abstract

The concept of resilience can be helpful in describing the relationship between vegetation and climate, especially when considering the likelihood of more extreme climate events due to global warming. However, the quantification and characterization of resilience is a challenge, due to the inherent complexity of the concept, as well as difficulty in comparing different ecosystems across the globe. In order to explore ecosystem resilience to drought, we estimated the resilience and related metrics from a series of land surface model (LSM) simulations with altered climate forcing data, focusing on the responses to changing precipitation. These simulations were performed in the semi-arid region of Caatinga biome, northeastern Brazil. Results showed that the quantification of resilience can be represented as a function between precipitation variation and gross primary productivity (GPP) variation. We compared the resilience components estimated for different vegetation types, which showed differences in the response of vegetation to precipitation variability. The study shows the potential of using LSMs to improve our understanding of the vegetation response to climate change, allowing us to explore possible scenarios that are usually not available in field experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Seixas, Hugo Tameirão & Brunsell, Nathaniel A. & Moraes, Elisabete Caria & de Oliveira, Gabriel & Mataveli, Guilherme, 2022. "Exploring the ecosystem resilience concept with land surface model scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:464:y:2022:i:c:s0304380021003616
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109817
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    1. Christopher R. Schwalm & William R. L. Anderegg & Anna M. Michalak & Joshua B. Fisher & Franco Biondi & George Koch & Marcy Litvak & Kiona Ogle & John D. Shaw & Adam Wolf & Deborah N. Huntzinger & Kev, 2017. "Global patterns of drought recovery," Nature, Nature, vol. 548(7666), pages 202-205, August.
    2. Forest Isbell & Dylan Craven & John Connolly & Michel Loreau & Bernhard Schmid & Carl Beierkuhnlein & T. Martijn Bezemer & Catherine Bonin & Helge Bruelheide & Enrica de Luca & Anne Ebeling & John N. , 2015. "Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes," Nature, Nature, vol. 526(7574), pages 574-577, October.
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    1. Hong Ran & Yonggang Ma & Zhonglin Xu, 2022. "Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.

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