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Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

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  • Beck, Marcus W.
  • Lehrter, John C.
  • Lowe, Lisa L.
  • Jarvis, Brandon M.

Abstract

Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in sensitivity had a direct correspondence with identifiability, such that only small subsets of the complete parameter set had unique effects on the model output. Selecting parameters by decreasing sensitivity demonstrated that only eight of 51 total parameters had a sufficiently unique effect on model output for accurate calibration. As a result, parameter selection heuristics were used to identify parameters for model calibration that depended on combined effects on output, relative sensitivity of each parameter, and ecological categories for the biogeochemical equations. The calibrated zero-dimensional (0-D) unit of the hypoxia model had improved fit to the observed data if sensitive phytoplankton parameters were included in an identifiable subset. Extension of results to a three-dimensional grid of the Gulf of Mexico showed that sensitive parameters for the (0-D) model translated to non-trivial changes in the areal estimates of hypoxia.

Suggested Citation

  • Beck, Marcus W. & Lehrter, John C. & Lowe, Lisa L. & Jarvis, Brandon M., 2017. "Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 363(C), pages 17-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:363:y:2017:i:c:p:17-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.08.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pauer, James J. & Feist, Timothy J. & Anstead, Amy M. & DePetro, Phillip A. & Melendez, Wilson & Lehrter, John C. & Murrell, Michael C. & Zhang, Xiaomi & Ko, Dong S., 2016. "A modeling study examining the impact of nutrient boundaries on primary production on the Louisiana continental shelf," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 328(C), pages 136-147.
    2. Robert J. Díaz & Rutger Rosenberg, 2011. "Introduction to Environmental and Economic Consequences of Hypoxia," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 71-82, March.
    3. Eldridge, Peter M. & Roelke, Daniel L., 2010. "Origins and scales of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf: Importance of seasonal plankton dynamics and river nutrients and discharge," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(7), pages 1028-1042.
    4. Soetaert, Karline & Petzoldt, Thomas, 2010. "Inverse Modelling, Sensitivity and Monte Carlo Analysis in R Using Package FME," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i03).
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