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Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Raquel Martins Lana
  • Maíra Moreira Morais
  • Tiago França Melo de Lima
  • Tiago Garcia de Senna Carneiro
  • Lucas Martins Stolerman
  • Jefferson Pereira Caldas dos Santos
  • José Joaquín Carvajal Cortés
  • Álvaro Eduardo Eiras
  • Cláudia Torres Codeço

Abstract

The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. K was the only free parameter estimated by the model. At the city level, the model with temperature as a driver captured the seasonal pattern of mosquito abundance. At the local level, we observed a spatial heterogeneity in the estimated carrying capacity between neighborhoods, weakly associated with environmental variables related to poor infrastructure. Model goodness-of-fit was influenced by the number of sticky traps, and suggests a minimum of 16 traps at the neighborhood level for surveillance.

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel Martins Lana & Maíra Moreira Morais & Tiago França Melo de Lima & Tiago Garcia de Senna Carneiro & Lucas Martins Stolerman & Jefferson Pereira Caldas dos Santos & José Joaquín Carvajal Cortés &, 2018. "Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0190673
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Soetaert, Karline & Petzoldt, Thomas, 2010. "Inverse Modelling, Sensitivity and Monte Carlo Analysis in R Using Package FME," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i03).
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