Origins and scales of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf: Importance of seasonal plankton dynamics and river nutrients and discharge

Management plans for the Mississippi River Basin call for reductions in nutrient concentrations up to 40% or more to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), while at the same time the government is considering new farm subsidies to promote development of biofuels from corn. Thus there are possibilities of both increasing and decreasing river nutrients depending on national priorities. River flow rates which also influence the extent of hypoxia on the shelf may be altered by global climate change. We have therefore developed a series of simulations to forecast ecosystem response to alterations in nutrient loading and river flow. We simulate ecosystem response and hypoxia events using a linked model consisting of multiple phytoplankton groups competing for nitrogen, phosphorus and light, zooplankton grazing that is influenced by prey edibility and stoichiometry, sub-pycnocline water-column metabolism that is influenced by sinking fecal pellets and algal cells, and multi-element sediment diagenesis. This model formulation depicts four areas of increasing salinity moving westward away from the Mississippi River point of discharge, where the surface mixed layer, four bottom layers and underlying sediments are represented in each area. The model supports the contention that a 40% decrease in river nutrient will substantially reduce the duration and areal extent of hypoxia on the shelf. But it also suggests that in low and middle salinity areas the hypoxia response is saturated with respect to nutrients, and that in high salinity regions small increases in nutrient and river flow will have disproportionally large effects on GOM hypoxia. The model simulations also suggest that river discharge is a stronger factor influencing hypoxia than river nutrients in the Mississippi River plume. Finally, the model simulations suggest that primary production in the low salinity regions is light limited while primary production in the higher salinity zones is phosphate limited during the May to October period when hypoxia is prevalent in the Mississippi River plume.