IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v276y2014icp85-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A stochastic cellular model with uncertainty analysis to assess the risk of transgene invasion after crop-wild hybridization: Oilseed rape and wild radish as a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Garnier, Aurelie
  • Darmency, Henri
  • Tricault, Yann
  • Chèvre, Anne-Marie
  • Lecomte, Jane

Abstract

Crop-to-wild transgene flow is a critical aspect of the environmental risks associated to the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops because the integration of an advantageous transgene could make the recipient population of wild species become invasive. This risk relies on three successive steps: (1) the initial GM crop-wild hybridization event, (2) the transmission of the transgene in the successive (backcross) hybrids generations and (3) the spread of the GM hybrid plants via pollen and seed dispersal. Using simulation models is necessary to account for the probabilities associated to all these events in order to make quantitative predictions of the risk of invasion by GM hybrids. We develop a simulation model to predict the fate of an advantageous transgene in a population of a wild relative species, following hybridization with a GM crop. We first present the generic model structure, with its three main components: stage-structure (developmental stages and hybrid classes), spatial realism, and stochasticity (demographic, genetic and dispersal). We show how a preliminary elasticity analysis can be performed to guide the parameterization of an uncertainty analysis by focusing on the most influencing parameters. We then use herbicide tolerant GM oilseed rape and its wild relative wild radish as an application of the simulation model. Despite the large uncertainty on some input parameters, simulations showed that invasion by the transgene was quasi-impossible within decaying wild radish populations whereas it was quasi-certain within viable populations. More generally, the modeling framework developed here provides a generic structure that can be applied to other wild and crop species. Our study underlined that uncertainty analyses are crucial in risk assessment because they permit to translate parameter uncertainty into uncertainty of model predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Garnier, Aurelie & Darmency, Henri & Tricault, Yann & Chèvre, Anne-Marie & Lecomte, Jane, 2014. "A stochastic cellular model with uncertainty analysis to assess the risk of transgene invasion after crop-wild hybridization: Oilseed rape and wild radish as a case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 276(C), pages 85-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:276:y:2014:i:c:p:85-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380014000386
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne-Marie Chèvre & Frédérique Eber & Alain Baranger & Michel Renard, 1997. "Gene flow from transgenic crops," Nature, Nature, vol. 389(6654), pages 924-924, October.
    2. Brett A. Melbourne & Alan Hastings, 2008. "Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity," Nature, Nature, vol. 454(7200), pages 100-103, July.
    3. Kuparinen, Anna & Schurr, Frank M., 2007. "A flexible modelling framework linking the spatio-temporal dynamics of plant genotypes and populations: Application to gene flow from transgenic forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 476-486.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Méndez, Vicenç & Llopis, Isaac & Campos, Daniel & Horsthemke, Werner, 2010. "Extinction conditions for isolated populations affected by environmental stochasticity," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 250-256.
    2. Vilenkin, Boris & Chikatunov, Vladimir I. & Pavlíček, Tomáš, 2009. "The pattern of species turnover resulting from stochastic population dynamics: The model and field data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(5), pages 657-661.
    3. Zhao, Yu & Yuan, Sanling, 2016. "Stability in distribution of a stochastic hybrid competitive Lotka–Volterra model with Lévy jumps," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 98-109.
    4. Pekrun, C. & Lane, P.W. & Lutman, P.J.W., 2005. "Modelling seedbank dynamics of volunteer oilseed rape (Brassica napus)," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Anna Kuparinen & Robert B O'Hara & Juha Merilä, 2008. "Probabilistic Models for Continuous Ontogenetic Transition Processes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(11), pages 1-7, November.
    6. Eriksson, A. & Elías-Wolff, F. & Mehlig, B., 2013. "Metapopulation dynamics on the brink of extinction," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 101-122.
    7. Steiner, Ulrich K. & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 2020. "Drivers of diversity in individual life courses: Sensitivity of the population entropy of a Markov chain," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 159-167.
    8. Gledhill, Michelle & Van Kirk, Robert W., 2011. "Modeling effects of toxin exposure in fish on long-term population size, with an application to selenium toxicity in bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3587-3597.
    9. Eleanor S Devenish-Nelson & Philip A Stephens & Stephen Harris & Carl Soulsbury & Shane A Richards, 2013. "Does Litter Size Variation Affect Models of Terrestrial Carnivore Extinction Risk and Management?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9, February.
    10. Izquierdo, Salvador & Dopazo, César & Fueyo, Norberto, 2010. "Supply-cost curves for geographically distributed renewable-energy resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 667-672, January.
    11. Pierre-Benoit Joly & Claire Marris, 2003. "Les Américains ont-ils accepté les OGM ? Analyse comparée de la construction des OGM comme problème public en France et aux Etats-Unis," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 68, pages 11-45.
    12. Pierre-Benoit, Joly & Claire, Marris, 2003. "Les Américains ont-ils accepté les OGM ? Analyse comparée de la construction des OGM comme problème public en France et aux Etats-Unis," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 68.
    13. Vuilleumier, Séverine & Possingham, Hugh P., 2012. "Interacting populations in heterogeneous environments," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 96-105.
    14. Jacob LaRiviere & David Kling & James N Sanchirico & Charles Sims & Michael Springborn, 2018. "The Treatment of Uncertainty and Learning in the Economics of Natural Resource and Environmental Management," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 92-112.
    15. Liu, He & Dai, Chuanjun & Yu, Hengguo & Guo, Qing & Li, Jianbing & Hao, Aimin & Kikuchi, Jun & Zhao, Min, 2023. "Dynamics of a stochastic non-autonomous phytoplankton–zooplankton system involving toxin-producing phytoplankton and impulsive perturbations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 368-386.
    16. Ponciano, José M. & Taper, Mark L. & Dennis, Brian, 2018. "Ecological change points: The strength of density dependence and the loss of history," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 45-59.
    17. Donovan, Pierce & Springborn, Michael, 2022. "Balancing conservation and commerce: A shadow value viability approach for governing bycatch," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    18. Chen, Aimin & Wang, Pei & Zhou, Tianshou & Tian, Tianhai, 2022. "Balance of positive and negative regulation for trade-off between efficiency and resilience of high-dimensional networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    19. Erickson, Richard A. & Cox, Stephen B. & Oates, Jessica L. & Anderson, Todd A. & Salice, Christopher J. & Long, Kevin R., 2014. "A Daphnia population model that considers pesticide exposure and demographic stochasticity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 37-47.
    20. Ponciano, José Miguel, 2018. "A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: Linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 128-136.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:276:y:2014:i:c:p:85-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.