IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v269y2013icp61-69.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tracking shifting range margins using geographical centroids of metapopulations weighted by population density

Author

Listed:
  • Watts, Michael J.
  • Fordham, Damien A.
  • Akçakaya, H. Resit
  • Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.
  • Brook, Barry W.

Abstract

Spatially explicit metapopulation models are being used with increasing frequency to forecast changes in species’ abundance in response to future climate and other environmental changes. However, to date, they have not quantified shifts in the margins of the metapopulation range – an important dynamic for understanding species responses to climate change. Here we describe a method for calculating shifts in a metapopulation's range-margin based on the geographical centroid of spatially distributed patches, where the population abundance of each patch or each landscape grid cell is used to weight its geographical (X–Y) coordinate. We evaluated our approach against a detailed virtual example and two real-world applications (threatened mountain hare in Britain and invasive European rabbits in Australia). We also investigated smoothing techniques to better portray overall trends in range changes through time. These procedures were implemented in a new user-friendly software tool, which can process the output file of the popular RAMAS Metapop software. We develop a scenario analysis to show how our weighted-centroid approach can be used to recommend species management options that are most important to long-term population viability (e.g., to choose between increasing connectivity, habitat quality or translocation) under different demographic scenarios. We show that calculating a smoothed time series of weighted centroids from a spatially explicit metapopulation model provides: (i) a useful way to identify the demographic momentum, or momentum of population shift, of the metapopulation (rather than just spatial aggregation or individual-patch behaviour) of a species through geographic space in response to climate change; and (ii) an informative metric of range movement that complements predictions of change in range area or total population size, and extirpation or founding of patches.

Suggested Citation

  • Watts, Michael J. & Fordham, Damien A. & Akçakaya, H. Resit & Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E. & Brook, Barry W., 2013. "Tracking shifting range margins using geographical centroids of metapopulations weighted by population density," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 269(C), pages 61-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:269:y:2013:i:c:p:61-69
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.08.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013004031
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.08.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
    2. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    3. Chris D. Thomas & Jack J. Lennon, 1999. "Birds extend their ranges northwards," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6733), pages 213-213, May.
    4. Scott R. Loarie & Philip B. Duffy & Healy Hamilton & Gregory P. Asner & Christopher B. Field & David D. Ackerly, 2009. "The velocity of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1052-1055, December.
    5. D. A. Fordham & H. R. Akçakaya & B. W. Brook & A. Rodríguez & P. C. Alves & E. Civantos & M. Triviño & M. J. Watts & M. B. Araújo, 2013. "Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 899-903, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pilowsky, Julia A. & Manica, Andrea & Brown, Stuart & Rahbek, Carsten & Fordham, Damien A., 2022. "Simulations of human migration into North America are more sensitive to demography than choice of palaeoclimate model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zhu & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Liang, Sai & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Zhang, Chao & Guan, Dabo, 2015. "Four system boundaries for carbon accounts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 118-125.
    2. Rougier, Thibaud & Drouineau, Hilaire & Dumoulin, Nicolas & Faure, Thierry & Deffuant, Guillaume & Rochard, Eric & Lambert, Patrick, 2014. "The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 31-44.
    3. Takuya Iwamura & Kerrie A Wilson & Oscar Venter & Hugh P Possingham, 2010. "A Climatic Stability Approach to Prioritizing Global Conservation Investments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-9, November.
    4. Pelayo Acevedo & Alberto Jiménez-Valverde & Jorge M. Lobo & Raimundo Real, 2017. "Predictor weighting and geographical background delimitation: two synergetic sources of uncertainty when assessing species sensitivity to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 131-143, November.
    5. Loehle, Craig, 2018. "Disequilibrium and relaxation times for species responses to climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 23-29.
    6. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    7. Václavík, Tomáš & Meentemeyer, Ross K., 2009. "Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3248-3258.
    8. Pearce, Joshua M. & Johnson, Sara J. & Grant, Gabriel B., 2007. "3D-mapping optimization of embodied energy of transportation," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 435-453.
    9. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    10. Andrew John & Avril Horne & Rory Nathan & Michael Stewardson & J. Angus Webb & Jun Wang & N. LeRoy Poff, 2021. "Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    11. John H Matthews & Bart AJ Wickel & Sarah Freeman, 2011. "Converging Currents in Climate-Relevant Conservation: Water, Infrastructure, and Institutions," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-4, September.
    12. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    13. Jorge Velásquez-Tibatá & María H Olaya-Rodríguez & Daniel López-Lozano & César Gutiérrez & Iván González & María C Londoño-Murcia, 2019. "BioModelos: A collaborative online system to map species distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Tasmin L. Rymer & Neville Pillay & Carsten Schradin, 2013. "Extinction or Survival? Behavioral Flexibility in Response to Environmental Change in the African Striped Mouse Rhabdomys," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    15. Feng, Zhiying & Tang, Wenhu & Niu, Zhewen & Wu, Qinghua, 2018. "Bi-level allocation of carbon emission permits based on clustering analysis and weighted voting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1122-1135.
    16. Alexander S Anderson & Collin J Storlie & Luke P Shoo & Richard G Pearson & Stephen E Williams, 2013. "Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-12, July.
    17. Di Traglia, Mario & Attorre, Fabio & Francesconi, Fabio & Valenti, Roberto & Vitale, Marcello, 2011. "Is cellular automata algorithm able to predict the future dynamical shifts of tree species in Italy under climate change scenarios? A methodological approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 925-934.
    18. Verboom, Jana & Alkemade, Rob & Klijn, Jan & Metzger, Marc J. & Reijnen, Rien, 2007. "Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 267-276, April.
    19. Perez, Carlos & Roncoli, Carla & Neely, Constance & Steiner, Jean L., 2007. "Can carbon sequestration markets benefit low-income producers in semi-arid Africa? Potentials and challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-12, April.
    20. Koo, Kyung Ah & Patten, Bernard C. & Teskey, Robert O. & Creed, Irena F., 2014. "Climate change effects on red spruce decline mitigated by reduction in air pollution within its shrinking habitat range," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 293(C), pages 81-90.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:269:y:2013:i:c:p:61-69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.