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Interactions between cod, herring and sprat in the changing environment of the Baltic Sea: A dynamic model analysis

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  • Heikinheimo, Outi

Abstract

The interactions between cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Central Baltic Sea were examined with a simple dynamic model, an alternative to more complicated and data-demanding multispecies and ecosystem models. The main aims of the study were to compare the effect of alternative structures on the model output and examine the control relationships in the fish assemblage under different environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions was modelled using a stock-recruitment equation for cod incorporating an environmental index. The model output was especially sensitive to the functional response in predation by cod on herring and sprat. The type II functional response led to a collapse of the clupeid stocks when cod was abundant, while the type III response produced more realistic stock dynamics. According to the simulations, an abundant cod stock was able to keep the sprat stock at a low level, while the herring stock was less affected and benefited from the decreased density of sprat. Simulation of different fishing scenarios indicated that reducing fishing mortality to the level currently advised by ICES would allow the recovery of the cod stock even in unfavourable environmental conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Heikinheimo, Outi, 2011. "Interactions between cod, herring and sprat in the changing environment of the Baltic Sea: A dynamic model analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(10), pages 1731-1742.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:10:p:1731-1742
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.03.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey A. Hutchings, 2000. "Collapse and recovery of marine fishes," Nature, Nature, vol. 406(6798), pages 882-885, August.
    2. Sandberg, J., 2007. "Cross-ecosystem analyses of pelagic food web structure and processes in the Baltic Sea," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 243-261.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lars Ravensbeck & Ayoe Hoff & Hans Frost, 2016. "Implications for fisheries management by inclusion of marine ecosystem services," IFRO Working Paper 2016/12, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Barbara Hutniczak, 2014. "Increasing Pressure on Unregulated Species Due to Changes in Individual Vessel Quotas: An Empirical Application to Trawler Fishing in the Baltic Sea," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(3), pages 201-217.
    3. Hutniczak, Barbara, 2015. "Modeling heterogeneous fleet in an ecosystem based management context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 203-214.
    4. Emmi Nieminen & Lone Grønbæk Kronbak & Marko Lindroos, 2016. "International Agreements in the Multispecies Baltic Sea Fisheries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(1), pages 109-134, September.
    5. Isomaa, Marleena & Kaitala, Veijo & Laakso, Jouni, 2013. "Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) recovery potential under different environment and fishery scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 118-125.
    6. Yun, Seong Do & Hutniczak, Barbara & Fenichel, Eli P. & Abbott, Joshua K., 2016. "The Wealth of Ecosystems:Valuing Natural Capital in the Context of Ecosystem Based Management," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235737, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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