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Comparison of alternative strategies for invasive species distribution modeling

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  • Robinson, Todd P.
  • van Klinken, Rieks D.
  • Metternicht, Graciela

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) can provide useful information for managing biological invasions, such as identification of priority areas for early detection or for determining containment boundaries. However, prediction of invasive species using SDMs can be challenging because they typically violate the core assumption of being at equilibrium with their environment, which may lead to poorly guided management resulting from high levels of omission. Our goal was to provide a suite of potential decision strategies (DSs) that were not reliant on the equilibrium assumption but rather could be chosen to better match the management application, which in this case was to ensure containment through adequate surveillance. We used presence-only data and expert knowledge for model calibration and presence/absence data to evaluate the potential distribution of an introduced mesquite (Leguminoseae: Prosopis) invasion located in the Pilbara Region of northwest Western Australia. Five different DSs with varying levels of conservatism/risk were derived from a multi-criteria evaluation model using ordered weighted averaging. The performance of DSs over all possible thresholds was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. DSs not on the convex hull of the ROC curves were discarded. Two threshold determination methods (TDMs) were compared on the two remaining DSs, one that assumed equilibrium (by maximizing overall prediction success) and another that assumed the invasion was ongoing (using a 95% threshold for true positives). The most conservative DS fitted the validation data most closely but could only predict 75% of the presence data. A more risk-taking DS could predict 95% of the presence data, which identified 8.5 times more area for surveillance, and better highlighted known populations that are still rapidly invading. This DS and TDM coupling was considered to be the most appropriate for our management application. Our results show that predictive niche modeling was highly sensitive to risk levels, but that these can be tailored to match specified management objectives. The methods implemented can be readily adapted to other invasive species or for conservation purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Robinson, Todd P. & van Klinken, Rieks D. & Metternicht, Graciela, 2010. "Comparison of alternative strategies for invasive species distribution modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(19), pages 2261-2269.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:19:p:2261-2269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.04.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lippitt, Christopher D. & Rogan, John & Toledano, James & Sangermano, Florencia & Eastman, J. Ronald & Mastro, Victor & Sawyer, Alan, 2008. "Incorporating anthropogenic variables into a species distribution model to map gypsy moth risk," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 339-350.
    2. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
    3. Václavík, Tomáš & Meentemeyer, Ross K., 2009. "Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3248-3258.
    4. Austin, Mike, 2007. "Species distribution models and ecological theory: A critical assessment and some possible new approaches," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 1-19.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rieks D van Klinken & F Dane Panetta & Shaun R Coutts, 2013. "Are High-Impact Species Predictable? An Analysis of Naturalised Grasses in Northern Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-11, July.
    2. Paul, Manashi & Negahban-Azar, Masoud & Shirmohammadi, Adel & Montas, Hubert, 2020. "Assessment of agricultural land suitability for irrigation with reclaimed water using geospatial multi-criteria decision analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Bakhtiar Feizizadeh & Thomas Blaschke, 2013. "GIS-multicriteria decision analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping: comparing three methods for the Urmia lake basin, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 2105-2128, February.
    4. Fitzgerald, Katherine & Heller, Nicole & Gordon, Deborah M., 2012. "Modeling the spread of the Argentine ant into natural areas: Habitat suitability and spread from neighboring sites," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 262-272.

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