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Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade

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  • Lotze-Campen, Hermann
  • Popp, Alexander
  • Beringer, Tim
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Bondeau, Alberte
  • Rost, Stefanie
  • Lucht, Wolfgang

Abstract

Increased future demands for food, fibre and fuels from biomass can only be met if the available land and water resources on a global scale are used and managed as efficiently as possible. The main routes for making the global agricultural system more productive are through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land, land expansion into currently non-agricultural areas, and international trade in agricultural commodities and processed goods. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between these options, we present a global bio-economic modelling approach with a special focus on spatially explicit land and water constraints as well as technological change in agricultural production. For a global bioenergy demand scenario reaching 100ExaJoule (EJ) until 2055 we derive a required rate of productivity increase on agricultural land between 1.2 and 1.4 percent per year under different land allocation options. A very high pressure for yield increase occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, even without additional bioenergy demand. Moreover, we analyse the implicit values (shadow prices) of limited water resources. The shadow prices for bioenergy are provided as a metric for assessing the trade-offs between different land allocation options and as a link between the agricultural and energy sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Popp, Alexander & Beringer, Tim & Müller, Christoph & Bondeau, Alberte & Rost, Stefanie & Lucht, Wolfgang, 2010. "Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(18), pages 2188-2196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:18:p:2188-2196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002
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    2. Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2011. "A Spatial Mathematical Model Analysis of the Linkage between Agricultural Trade and Deforestation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115993, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    5. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.
    6. Maryia Mandryk & Jonathan Doelman & Elke Stehfest, 2015. "Assessment of global land availability: land supply for agriculture," FOODSECURE Technical papers 7, LEI Wageningen UR.
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    9. Rega, Carlo & Helming, John & Paracchini, Maria Luisa, 2019. "Environmentalism and localism in agricultural and land-use policies can maintain food production while supporting biodiversity. Findings from simulations of contrasting scenarios in the EU," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Wang, Xiaoxi & Dietrich, Jan P. & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Biewald, Anne & Stevanović, Miodrag & Bodirsky, Benjamin L. & Brümmer, Bernhard & Popp, Alexander, 2020. "Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Bonsch, Markus & Dietrich, Jan Philipp & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Alexanger Popp and & Stevanovic, Miodrag, 2013. "Validation of land use models," Conference papers 330164, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Hussain, C.M. Iftekhar & Norton, Brian & Duffy, Aidan, 2017. "Technological assessment of different solar-biomass systems for hybrid power generation in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1115-1129.
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    14. Bourne, Michael & Childs, Jack & Philippidis, George, 2011. "Reaping What Others Have Sown: Measuring the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Spanish Agriculture," Conference papers 332166, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    17. Helin, Janne & Weikard, Hans-Peter, 2019. "A model for estimating phosphorus requirements of world food production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    18. Meiyappan, Prasanth & Dalton, Michael & O’Neill, Brian C. & Jain, Atul K., 2014. "Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 152-174.
    19. Kalt, Gerald & Mayer, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Kaufmann, Lisa & Lauk, Christian & Matej, Sarah & Röös, Elin & Theurl, Michaela C. & Erb, Karl-Heinz, 2021. "Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 459(C).
    20. Massigoge, Ignacio & Carcedo, Ana & de Borja Reis, Andre Froes & Mitchell, Clay & Day, Scott & Oliverio, Joaquin & Truong, Sandra H. & McCormick, Ryan F. & Rotundo, Jose & Lira, Sara & Ciampitti, Igna, 2023. "Exploring avenues for agricultural intensification: A case study for maize-soybean in the Southern US region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    21. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Tirado-Seco, Pablo & Samson, Réjean, 2012. "Macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005–2025 European Union bioenergy policy using the GTAP model and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1180-1192.
    22. Servaas Storm, 2011. "Forum 2011," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 399-418, January.
    23. Graef, F. & Uckert, G., 2018. "Gender determines scientists’ sustainability assessments of food-securing upgrading strategies," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 84-93.
    24. Frieder Graef & Götz Uckert & Jana Schindler & Hannes Jochen König & Hadijah A. Mbwana & Anja Fasse & Lutengano Mwinuka & Henry Mahoo & Laurent N. Kaburire & Paul Saidia & Yusto Mugisha Yustas & Valer, 2017. "Expert-based ex-ante assessments of potential social, ecological, and economic impacts of upgrading strategies for improving food security in rural Tanzania using the ScalA-FS approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(6), pages 1255-1270, December.

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