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Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market

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  • Christou, Christina
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Nyakabawo, Wendy

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on the housing market of the United States using the time-varying parameter factor augmented vector autoregression (TVP-FAVAR). We use a comprehensive quarterly time-series dataset on real economic activity, price, and financial variables, besides housing market variables, covering the period 1963:Q1 to 2014:Q3. In addition to housing prices, we also consider variables related to home sales, permits and starts. In general, the results of the cumulative response of housing variables to a one standard deviation positive uncertainty shock at the one-, four-, eight-, and twelve-quarter-horizon tends to change over time, both in terms of sign and magnitude, with the uncertainty shock primarily negatively affecting the housing variables, in particular prices, permits and starts, in longer-runs (i.e., two- and three-years-ahead horizons).

Suggested Citation

  • Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:180:y:2019:i:c:p:15-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.03.029
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    4. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark E., 2023. "Is there a national housing market bubble brewing in the United States?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(8), pages 2191-2228, December.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Christian Pierdzioch & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Machine Learning Predictions of Housing Market Synchronization across US States: The Role of Uncertainty," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 523-545, May.
    6. Ye, Kewei & Wang, Han & Ma, Xiaobing, 2023. "A generalized dynamic stress-strength interference model under δ-failure criterion for self-healing protective structure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    7. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Kyei, Clement Kweku & Shivambu, Rinsuna, 2021. "Uncertainty and daily predictability of housing returns and volatility of the United States: Evidence from a higher-order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 200-206.
    8. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik & Aaron Smallwood, 2024. "Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply," Globalization Institute Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Lukasz Mach & Dariusz Zmarzly & Ireneusz Dabrowski & Pawel Fracz, 2020. "Comparison on Subannual Seasonality of Building Construction in European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 241-257.
    10. Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Xin Sheng, 2022. "The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on housing returns and volatility: evidence from US state-level data," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 206-238, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Linyan Dai & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Impact of Uncertainty on State-Level Housing Markets of the United States: The Role of Social Cohesion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-9, March.
    12. Gholipour, Hassan F. & Tajaddini, Reza & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Yam, Sharon, 2021. "Responses of REITs index and commercial property prices to economic uncertainties: A VAR analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Hardik A. Marfatia & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Predicting Housing Market Sentiment: The Role of Financial, Macroeconomic and Real Estate Uncertainties," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 189-209, May.
    14. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing market; Stochastic volatility; Time-varying parameter; FAVAR; Uncertainty shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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