Evaluating time-varying granger causality between US-China political relation changes and China stock market
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103918
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015.
"Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
- Gill Segal & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Good and Bad Uncertainty: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Implications," 2014 Meeting Papers 488, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022.
"Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
- Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not All Political Relation Shocks are Alike: Assessing the Impacts of US-China Tensions on the Oil Market," Post-Print hal-03737307, HAL.
- Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers hal-04159797, HAL.
- Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," EconomiX Working Papers 2022-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Yifei Cai & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers of BETA 2022-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Yifei Cai & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers 2022-07, CEPII research center.
- Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
- Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022.
"Measuring Geopolitical Risk,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
- Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1222r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 23 Mar 2022.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 79, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Pham, Anh Viet, 2019. "Political risk and cost of equity: The mediating role of political connections," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-87.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016.
"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 15111, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 21633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2015. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Davis, Steven & Bloom, Nicholas & Baker, Scott, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 10900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019.
"Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
- Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2017. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," NBER Working Papers 24029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-325, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," Working Papers Series 96, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & van Lent, Laurence & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2017. "Firm-level political risk: Measurement and effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 12436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Time-varied causality between US partisan conflict shock and crude oil return," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
- Du, Yingxin & Ju, Jiandong & Ramirez, Carlos D. & Yao, Xi, 2017. "Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990–2013," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 211-225.
- Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019.
"Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
- Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Wendy Nyakabawo, 2018. "Time-Varying Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the US Housing Market," Working Papers 201870, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Yifei Cai, 2018. "Predictive Power of us Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shock on Stock Returns in Australia and New Zealand," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 470-488, December.
- Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019.
"Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
- Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Time-Varying Predictability of Oil Market Movements Over a Century of Data: The Role of US Financial Stress," Working Papers 201848, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
- Jung-Suk Yu & M. Kabir Hassan & Benito Sanchez, 2012. "A re-examination of financial development, stock markets development and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3479-3489, September.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024.
"How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "How political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Working Papers 2023.07, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
- Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?," Working Papers hal-04228303, HAL.
- Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?," Post-Print hal-04436186, HAL.
- Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "How Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?," Working Papers of BETA 2023-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?," Post-Print hal-04436183, HAL.
- Afonso, António & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024.
"On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?,"
China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
- António Afonso & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "On the Time-Varying Impact of China’s Bilateral Political Relations on Its Trading Partners: “Doux Commerce” or “Trade Follows the Flag”?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10814, CESifo.
- Antonio Afonso & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?," Working Papers of BETA 2024-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- António Afonso & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners: : “doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?," Working Papers REM 2023/0301, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Yahua & Wu, Yanrui & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Airline stock market performance and political relations: A cross-quantilogram analysis of Chinese and US carriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 124-149.
- Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
- Xin Chen & Zhangming Shan & Decai Tang & Biao Zhou & Valentina Boamah, 2023. "Interest rate risk of Chinese commercial banks based on the GARCH-EVT model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Yahua & Wu, Yanrui & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Airline stock market performance and political relations: A cross-quantilogram analysis of Chinese and US carriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 124-149.
- Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Time-varied causality between US partisan conflict shock and crude oil return," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
- Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2022. "US partisan conflict shocks and international stock market returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2817-2854, December.
- Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Ayadi, Rim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2022. "Exploring the causal links between investor sentiment and financial instability: A dynamic macro-financial analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 290-303.
- Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2024. "Firm-level political risk and stock price crashes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
- Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024.
"The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting,"
Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
- Marina Diakonova & Luis Molina & Hannes Mueller & Javier J. Pérez & Cristopher Rauh, 2022. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 2232, Banco de España.
- Diakonova, M. & Molina, L. & Mueller, H. & Pérez, J. J. & Rauh, C., 2024. "The Information Content of Conflict, Social Unrest and Policy Uncertainty Measures for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2418, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Diakonova, M. & Molina, L. & Mueller, H. & Pérez, J. J. & Rauh, C., 2024. "The Information Content of Conflict, Social Unrest and Policy Uncertainty Measures for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2413, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Lu, Changrong & Yu, Fandi & Li, Jiaxiang & Li, Shilong, 2024. "Research on safe-haven currencies under global uncertainty —A new perception based on the East Asian market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Montone, Maurizio, 2024. "Political uncertainty and institutional herding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday & Nicolas Himounet, 2022.
"A Positive Effect of Uncertainty Shocks on the Economy: Is the Chase Over ?,"
Working Papers
hal-04159792, HAL.
- Francisco Serranito & Julien Vauday & Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "A Positive Effect of Uncertainty Shocks on the Economy: Is the Chase Over ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2022-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Radu Tunaru, 2022.
"Asymmetric Network Connectedness of Fears,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1304-1316, November.
- Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Radu Tunaru, 2018. "Asymmetric Network Connectedness of Fears," Papers 1810.12022, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
- Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "Asymmetric network connectedness of fears," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108199, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Zohar, Osnat, 2024.
"Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Osnat Zohar, 2021. "Cyclicality of Uncertainty and Disagreement," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2021.09, Bank of Israel.
- Chen, Chung-Chi & Huang, Yu-Lieh & Yang, Fang, 2024. "Semantics matter: An empirical study on economic policy uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1286-1302.
- Ersahin, Nuri & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Huang, Ruidi, 2024.
"Supply chain risk: Changes in supplier composition and vertical integration,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
- Ersahin, Nuri & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Huang, Ruidi, 2022. "Supply Chain Risk: Changes in Supplier Composition and Vertical Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 17208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nuri Ersahin & Mariassunta Giannetti & Ruidi Huang, 2023. "Supply Chain Risk: Changes in Supplier Composition and Vertical Integration," NBER Working Papers 31134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bermpei, Theodora & Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024.
"Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
- Laurent Ferrara & Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Theodora Bermpei, 2022. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04159791, HAL.
- Laurent Ferrara & Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Theodora Bermpei, 2022. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," EconomiX Working Papers 2022-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
- Fiori, Giuseppe & Scoccianti, Filippo, 2023.
"The economic effects of firm-level uncertainty: Evidence using subjective expectations,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 92-105.
- Giuseppe Fiori & Filippo Scoccianti, 2021. "The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 630, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Giuseppe Fiori & Filippo Scoccianti, 2021. "The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1320, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gad, Mahmoud & Nikolaev, Valeri & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2024. "Firm-level political risk and credit markets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2).
- Mehmet Balcilar & Gizem Uzuner & Festus Victor Bekun & Mark E. Wohar, 2023. "Housing price uncertainty and housing prices in the UK in a time-varying environment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 523-549, May.
- Safiullah, Md & Kabir, Md. Nurul, 2024. "Corporate political risk and environmental performance," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
More about this item
Keywords
US-China political relation; China's stock market; Causality; Bootstrapping; Rolling-window technique;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323002908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.