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Measuring excess-predictability of asset returns and market efficiency over time

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  • Levich, Richard
  • Conlon, Thomas
  • Potì, Valerio

Abstract

We build on the predictability bounds of Huang and Zhou (2017) and Potì (2018) to develop an index of informational market inefficiency. This index takes values given by the levels of relative risk aversion (RRA) of the marginal investor such that, net of sampling error at a given confidence level, the observed predictability does not exceed the predictability bound. We demonstrate the usefulness of our index in a study of the predictability of forward exchange rates of currencies of emerging and developed economies from 1994 to 2016, to shed light on how the efficiency of currency markets has evolved over this time. We find widespread evidence of excess-predictability, hence currency market inefficiency, in the early part of the sample period and then at specific times, such as the recent global financial crisis. In the more recent part of the sample period, the evidence of excess-predictability is largely limited to emerging market currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Levich, Richard & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2019. "Measuring excess-predictability of asset returns and market efficiency over time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 92-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:92-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levich, Richard M. & Potì, Valerio, 2015. "Predictability and ‘good deals’ in currency markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 454-472.
    2. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
    3. Potì, Valerio, 2018. "A new tight and general bound on return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 140-145.
    4. Kuang, P. & Schröder, M. & Wang, Q., 2014. "Illusory profitability of technical analysis in emerging foreign exchange markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 192-205.
    5. Huang, Dashan & Zhou, Guofu, 2017. "Upper Bounds on Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 401-425, April.
    6. Dominik M. Rösch & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Mathijs A. van Dijk, 2017. "The Dynamics of Market Efficiency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1151-1187.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    3. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    4. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Analysis and comparison of the multifractality and efficiency of Chinese stock market: Evidence from dynamics of major indexes in different boards," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 528(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Atance, David & Serna, Gregorio, 2024. "Time-varying expected returns, conditional skewness and Bitcoin return predictability," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Comparative analysis of the multifractality and efficiency of exchange markets: Evidence from exchange rates dynamics of major world currencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    8. Potì, Valerio & Levich, Richard & Conlon, Thomas, 2020. "Predictability and pricing efficiency in forward and spot, developed and emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; Market efficiency; Predictability bounds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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