IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v535y2019ics0378437119313627.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparative analysis of the multifractality and efficiency of exchange markets: Evidence from exchange rates dynamics of major world currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Han, Chenyu
  • Wang, Yiming
  • Ning, Ye

Abstract

This paper studies the exchange rates of four major currencies against the United States dollar(USD), including the euro(EUR), the pound(GBP), the Canadian dollar(CAD), and the Japanese yen(JPY) from 2005 to 2019 through multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The four exchange rate series exhibit significant multifractal properties on the whole time scale and the yen has the lowest multifractal properties among the four exchange rate series, showing the highest market efficiency. The multifractal properties of the four exchange rate series are due to both long-range correlation and fat-tail characteristics of non-Gaussian probability density function. The cross-correlations among different exchange markets reflect the internal linkages between different exchange markets. This paper also aims to compare the multifractality degrees of euro, pound, Canadian dollar, and yen exchange markets in three sub-samples divided by the 2008 financial crisis and the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its withdrawal from quantitative easing(QE) policy in 2014, finding that the four exchange markets all have multifractal structural properties with different levels in the sample and sub-samples that cause inefficiency with different levels in these foreign exchange markets. This may help study the impacts of these events on efficiency and risks in these exchange markets in each sub-sample from the statistical and fractal perspectives. This study has theoretical and practical significance in the application of Effective Market Hypothesis (EMH) in exchange market. Results of this study may also provide important implications for further study on the dynamic mechanism and efficiency in exchange market and help investors effectively control the market risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Comparative analysis of the multifractality and efficiency of exchange markets: Evidence from exchange rates dynamics of major world currencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:535:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119313627
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119313627
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122365?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Liansheng & Zhu, Yingming & Wang, Yudong, 2016. "Multifractal characterization of energy stocks in China: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 357-365.
    2. Ning, Ye & Wang, Yiming & Yang, Zhenyu & Geng, Yan, 2017. "Measurement and multifractal properties of short-term international capital flows in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 714-721.
    3. Wei-Xing Zhou, 2009. "The components of empirical multifractality in financial returns," Papers 0908.1089, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
    4. Grosse, Robert, 2017. "The global financial crisis—Market misconduct and regulation from a behavioral view," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 387-398.
    5. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Cisneros, Myriam & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Soriano, Angel, 2002. "Multifractal Hurst analysis of crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 651-670.
    6. Gu, Rongbao & Zhang, Bing, 2016. "Is efficiency of crude oil market affected by multifractality? Evidence from the WTI crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 151-158.
    7. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2011. "Multifractal detrending moving average analysis on the US Dollar exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3512-3523.
    8. Ning, Ye & Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming, 2018. "The multifractal properties of Euro and Pound exchange rates and comparisons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 578-587.
    9. Cao, Guangxi & Cao, Jie & Xu, Longbing, 2013. "Asymmetric multifractal scaling behavior in the Chinese stock market: Based on asymmetric MF-DFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 797-807.
    10. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    11. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2014. "Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 235-244.
    12. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    13. Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaşer, Tanseli, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-143.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Stock market efficiency analysis using long spans of Data: A multifractal detrended fluctuation approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 398-411.
    15. Li, Jing & Miller, Norman C., 2015. "Foreign exchange market inefficiency and exchange rate anomalies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-320.
    16. Lu, Xinsheng & Tian, Jie & Zhou, Ying & Li, Zhihui, 2013. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of the Chinese stock index futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1452-1458.
    17. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2011. "Analysis of the efficiency and multifractality of gold markets based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 817-827.
    18. Norouzzadeh, P. & Rahmani, B., 2006. "A multifractal detrended fluctuation description of Iranian rial–US dollar exchange rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 328-336.
    19. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    20. Mali, Provash & Mukhopadhyay, Amitabha, 2014. "Multifractal characterization of gold market: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 361-372.
    21. Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2018. "Stock market efficiency: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 139-153.
    22. Tran, Vu Le & Leirvik, Thomas, 2019. "A simple but powerful measure of market efficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 141-151.
    23. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2009. "Does financial market liberalization increase the degree of market efficiency? The case of the Athens stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 50-57, March.
    24. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
    25. Stošić, Darko & Stošić, Dusan & Stošić, Tatijana & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2015. "Multifractal analysis of managed and independent float exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 13-18.
    26. Levich, Richard & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2019. "Measuring excess-predictability of asset returns and market efficiency over time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 92-96.
    27. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "On quantitative easing and high frequency exchange rate dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 110-125.
    28. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    29. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2010. "Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3218-3229.
    30. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    31. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The depreciation of the pound post-Brexit: Could it have been predicted?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 206-213.
    32. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    33. Ramon Pacheco Pardo, 2011. "From Miracle to Crash? The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Spain," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Pompeo Posta & Leila Simona Talani (ed.), Europe and the Financial Crisis, chapter 9, pages 165-182, Palgrave Macmillan.
    34. Zhao, Zhen-yu & Zhu, Jiang & Xia, Bo, 2016. "Multi-fractal fluctuation features of thermal power coal price in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 10-18.
    35. Zunino, L. & Tabak, B.M. & Figliola, A. & Pérez, D.G. & Garavaglia, M. & Rosso, O.A., 2008. "A multifractal approach for stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6558-6566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bonds pre- and during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba & Nasir, Rana Muhammad & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Are clean energy stocks efficient? Asymmetric multifractal scaling behaviour," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    4. Alexander Musaev & Andrey Makshanov & Dmitry Grigoriev, 2022. "Evolutionary Optimization of Control Strategies for Non-Stationary Immersion Environments," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Dan, 2022. "Asymmetric multifractality, comparative efficiency analysis of green finance markets: A dynamic study by index-based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    6. Katarzyna Czech & Łukasz Pietrych, 2021. "The Efficiency of the Polish Zloty Exchange Rate Market: The Uncovered Interest Parity and Fractal Analysis Approaches," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, August.
    7. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2021. "Analysis of stock market efficiency during crisis periods in the US stock market: Differences between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    8. Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modelling the quantile cross-coherence between exchange rates: Does the COVID-19 pandemic change the interlinkage structure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Analysis and comparison of the multifractality and efficiency of Chinese stock market: Evidence from dynamics of major indexes in different boards," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 528(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Ning, Ye & Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming, 2018. "The multifractal properties of Euro and Pound exchange rates and comparisons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 578-587.
    3. Chenyu Han & Yiming Wang & Yingying Xu, 2019. "Efficiency and Multifractality Analysis of the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Stock Indices before and after the 2015 Stock Market Crash," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2021. "Analysis of stock market efficiency during crisis periods in the US stock market: Differences between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    5. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Dan, 2022. "Asymmetric multifractality, comparative efficiency analysis of green finance markets: A dynamic study by index-based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    6. Akash P. POOJARI & Siva Kiran GUPTHA & G Raghavender RAJU, 2022. "Multifractal analysis of equities. Evidence from the emerging and frontier banking sectors," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(632), A), pages 61-80, Autumn.
    7. Lee, Min-Jae & Choi, Sun-Yong, 2024. "Insights into the dynamics of market efficiency spillover of financial assets in different equity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 641(C).
    8. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2021. "Exchange rate regimes and price efficiency: Empirical examination of the impact of financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Ruan, Qingsong & Zhang, Manqian & Lv, Dayong & Yang, Haiquan, 2018. "SAD and stock returns revisited: Nonlinear analysis based on MF-DCCA and Granger test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1009-1022.
    10. Stosic, Dusan & Stosic, Darko & de Mattos Neto, Paulo S.G. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Multifractal characterization of Brazilian market sectors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 956-964.
    11. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir, 2024. "A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of Islamic and conventional financial markets efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    12. Zhou, Weijie & Dang, Yaoguo & Gu, Rongbao, 2013. "Efficiency and multifractality analysis of CSI 300 based on multifractal detrending moving average algorithm," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1429-1438.
    13. da Silva Filho, Antônio Carlos & Maganini, Natália Diniz & de Almeida, Eduardo Fonseca, 2018. "Multifractal analysis of Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 954-967.
    14. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2011. "Multifractal detrending moving average analysis on the US Dollar exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3512-3523.
    16. Gajardo, Gabriel & Kristjanpoller, Werner D. & Minutolo, Marcel, 2018. "Does Bitcoin exhibit the same asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations with crude oil, gold and DJIA as the Euro, Great British Pound and Yen?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-205.
    17. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2011. "A copula–multifractal volatility hedging model for CSI 300 index futures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4260-4272.
    18. Maganini, Natália Diniz & Da Silva Filho, Antônio Carlos & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2018. "Investigation of multifractality in the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 497(C), pages 258-271.
    19. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Yu & Ma, Feng, 2015. "Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 101-113.
    20. Deniz Erer & Elif Erer & Selim Güngör, 2023. "The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    MF-DFA; Multifractal properties; Exchange market; Market efficiency; Exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:535:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119313627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.