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Confidence intervals in regressions with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components

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  • Fosten, Jack

Abstract

This paper shows that HAC standard errors must be adjusted when constructing confidence intervals in regressions involving both the factors and idiosyncratic components estimated from a big dataset. This result is in contrast to the seminal result of Bai and Ng (2006) where the assumption that T∕N→0 is sufficient to eliminate the effect of estimation error, where T and N are the time-series and cross-sectional dimensions. Simulations show vast improvements in the coverage rates of the adjusted confidence intervals over the unadjusted ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Fosten, Jack, 2017. "Confidence intervals in regressions with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 71-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:71-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.05.034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2015. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 32-55, February.
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    3. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Perron, Benoit, 2014. "Bootstrapping factor-augmented regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 156-173.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor model; Idiosyncratic component; Inference; Confidence intervals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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