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Cyclical dynamics in idiosyncratic labor-market risks: Evidence from March CPS 1968–2011

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  • Zhao, Bo

Abstract

The paper estimates the household labor earning process using the March Current Population Survey 1968–2011. GMM estimates confirm that the results in Storesletten et al. (2004) still hold in a much larger data set over a longer period. The persistent idiosyncratic risk is strongly countercyclical, with an annual auto-correlation equal to .973 and an standard deviation that increases by 72.5% (from .090 to .156) as the macroeconomy moves from peak to trough.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Bo, 2013. "Cyclical dynamics in idiosyncratic labor-market risks: Evidence from March CPS 1968–2011," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 528-531.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:120:y:2013:i:3:p:528-531
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.06.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Altonji, Joseph G & Segal, Lewis M, 1996. "Small-Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 353-366, July.
    2. Brigitte C. Madrian & Lars John Lefgren, 1999. "A Note on Longitudinally Matching Current Population Survey (CPS) Respondents," NBER Technical Working Papers 0247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dong, Feng & Liu, Jianfeng & Xu, Zhiwei & Zhao, Bo, 2021. "Flight to housing in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Countercyclical; Idiosyncratic risk; Incomplete market model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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