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Trade Policy, Income Risk and Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Krebs
  • Pravin Krishna

    (Department of Economics Brown University)

Abstract

This paper develops a framework to study empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk and to evaluate the associated welfare consequences. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, we find that trade policy changes have a significant short-run effect on income risk. Further, while the tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Suggested Citation

  • Tom Krebs & Pravin Krishna, 2005. "Trade Policy, Income Risk and Welfare," 2005 Meeting Papers 271, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed005:271
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Policy; Income Risk; Welfare; Incomplete Markets; Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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