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Stock market forecasting accuracy of asymmetric GARCH models during the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Caiado, Jorge
  • Lúcio, Francisco

Abstract

We propose a new clustering approach for comparing financial time series and employ it to study how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the U.S. stock market. Essentially, we compute the forecast accuracy of asymmetric GARCH models applied to S&P500 industries and use the model forecast errors for different horizons and cut-off points to calculate a distance matrix for the stock indices. Hierarchical clustering algorithms are used to assign the set of industries into clusters. We found homogeneous clusters of industries in terms of the impact of COVID-19 on US stock market volatility. The industries most affected by the pandemic and with less accurate stock market prediction (Hotels, Airline, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods, and Automobile) are separated in Euclidean distance from those industries that were less impacted by COVID-19 and which had more accurate forecasting (Pharmaceuticals, Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, Data Processing, and Movies & Entertainment).

Suggested Citation

  • Caiado, Jorge & Lúcio, Francisco, 2023. "Stock market forecasting accuracy of asymmetric GARCH models during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:68:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823000943
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.101971
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Güngör, Bekir Oray & Ertuğrul, H. Murat & Soytaş, Uğur, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. H. Murat Ertuğrul & B. Oray Güngör & Uğur Soytaş, 2021. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    3. Papadamou, Stephanos & Fassas, Athanasios & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2020. "Direct and Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Implied Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 100020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Qu & Yu, Yuanyuan & Dai, Dongsheng & He, Qian & Lin, Yu, 2024. "Can hybrid model improve the forecasting performance of stock price index amid COVID-19? Contextual evidence from the MEEMD-LSTM-MLP approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cluster analysis; COVID-19; Forecast accuracy; Threshold GARCH model; S&P500; Unsupervised machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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